The Atlantic’s Pulse: Unpacking the Real Risks of AMOC Stagnation, European Cooling, and Rising Seas

Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) serves as a critical artery of the Earth's climate system, redistributing vast quantities of heat, salt, and carbon from the tropics to the high latitudes. Its stability has been a subject of intense scientific inquiry and public fascination, oscillating between theoretical predictions of abrupt collapse and model-based assurances of gradual decline. This report provides an exhaustive examination of the state of AMOC science as presented in the 2026 Annual Review of Marine Science article by Henk A. Dijkstra and René M. van Westen, titled "The Probability of an AMOC Collapse Onset in the Twenty-First Century."

Synthesizing findings from their pivotal 2024 early warning signal study, recent multi-model intercomparisons, and the broader oceanographic literature, this analysis explores the physical mechanisms that govern AMOC stability—specifically the destabilizing salt-advection feedback and the stabilizing influence of Southern Ocean wind-driven upwelling. While the 2026 review concludes that a total collapse is "unlikely" within this century due to mechanical wind forcing, it highlights a perilous "tipping course" driven by persistent model biases and anthropogenic freshwater forcing. This document dissects the theoretical foundations, the limitations of current Earth System Models (ESMs), the potential for inter-basin compensation via the Pacific, and the catastrophic global impacts of even a partial AMOC failure, ranging from European cooling to tropical monsoon failure and accelerated coastal sea-level rise.

1. Introduction: The Pulse of the Atlantic

1.1 The Great Ocean Conveyor

The Earth's climate is not a static system but a dynamic engine driven by the uneven distribution of solar energy. The equator receives a surplus of heat, while the poles run a deficit. To balance this, the planet employs two primary fluids to transport energy: the atmosphere and the ocean. While the atmosphere is chaotic and fast-moving, the ocean is the planet's thermal memory, moving heat with the slow, relentless momentum of a freight train.

At the heart of this oceanic heat engine lies the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Often conflated with the wind-driven Gulf Stream, the AMOC is a distinct, three-dimensional system of currents that spans the entire depth of the Atlantic Ocean. It acts as a planetary conveyor belt: warm, salty surface water flows northward from the tropics, releasing its heat to the atmosphere as it reaches the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. This heat release—equivalent to over a petawatt of energy, or roughly 60 times the current global energy consumption—is responsible for the temperate climate of Northwestern Europe.¹

As the water cools, it becomes denser. In specific regions like the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, this cold, dense water sinks to the abyss in a process known as deep water formation. This sinking water, now known as North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), turns southward, flowing along the ocean floor all the way to the Southern Ocean, where it is eventually mixed back to the surface. This overturning loop is the "pulse" of the Atlantic, a self-sustaining cycle that has maintained the Holocene climate stability for the last 11,000 years.³

1.2 The Specter of Collapse

For decades, the stability of this system has been questioned. Unlike wind-driven gyres, which will persist as long as the Earth spins and winds blow, the AMOC is a thermohaline circulation—driven by temperature (thermo) and salinity (haline) density differences. This reliance on density makes it vulnerable. If the surface waters of the North Atlantic were to become too fresh—due to melting ice sheets or increased rainfall—they would become too light to sink, potentially jamming the gears of the conveyor belt.⁴

The concept of an "abrupt climate change" driven by AMOC collapse entered the public consciousness through Hollywood exaggerations like The Day After Tomorrow, but the science behind the tipping point is sobering reality. The 2026 Annual Review of Marine Science paper by Dijkstra and van Westen addresses the urgent question: Are we approaching this cliff?.¹

Their review comes at a critical juncture. In 2024, the same authors published a landmark study in Science Advances identifying a physics-based early warning signal suggesting the AMOC is already on a "tipping course." Yet, their 2026 review concludes that a total collapse is "unlikely" before 2100. This report aims to reconcile these findings, explaining the complex interplay of feedbacks that might save us from a total shutdown while still condemning us to a drastically altered climate.⁶

2. Theoretical Underpinnings: How the Ocean Remembers

2.1 The Stommel Box Model

To understand why the AMOC might collapse, we must look to the theoretical foundation laid by Henry Stommel in 1961. Stommel created a simplified mathematical representation of the ocean, known as a "box model." He imagined the North Atlantic and the Equator as two connected boxes of water.

The flow between these boxes is driven by density differences. Cold, salty water is heavy; warm, fresh water is light.

• Thermal Drive: The temperature difference (cold poles, warm equator) promotes a strong circulation.

• Saline Brake: The salinity difference works against this. The tropics are net evaporative (making water salty), while the high latitudes are net precipitative (making water fresh).

Stommel discovered that this competition creates a system with bistability. This means the AMOC can exist in two distinct equilibrium states under the exact same external conditions:

1. The "On" State: A vigorous circulation where the flow is fast enough to bring salty subtropical water north, maintaining high density and sinking.

2. The "Off" State: A collapsed circulation where the flow is too slow to bring salt north; the northern box freshens, sinking stops, and the circulation stagnates.⁴

2.2 The Salt-Advection Feedback

The mechanism that allows the system to jump between these states is the salt-advection feedback. It is a classic positive feedback loop.

Imagine the AMOC as a train delivering its own fuel (salt).

• In the "On" state: The train moves fast, delivering plenty of salt to the North Atlantic. This salt makes the water heavy, which powers the engine (sinking) that keeps the train moving.

• The Perturbation: Now, imagine we dump freshwater onto the tracks (melting Greenland ice). The water in the north becomes slightly lighter. Sinking slows down.

• The Spiral: Because sinking slows, the train slows. A slower train delivers less salt. With less salt arriving, the northern water becomes even fresher and lighter. Sinking slows further. The train slows further.

• The Collapse: Eventually, the train slows so much that it cannot deliver enough salt to overcome the freshening from rain and ice melt. The engine stalls completely. The AMOC stagnation occurs, and potentially leads to collapse.⁸

This theoretical framework is not just a mathematical curiosity; it is the lens through which modern climate models are evaluated. The critical variable determining vulnerability is the direction of salt transport.

2.3 The Stability Criterion: FovS

One of the most important metrics in this field, and a focal point of the Dijkstra and van Westen review, is the freshwater transport by the overturning circulation at the southern boundary of the Atlantic (34S), denoted as FovS.

This metric tells us the net effect of the AMOC on the salinity of the Atlantic basin.

• Negative FovS (Importing Salt): If the AMOC brings in saltier water than it exports, the feedback is positive (destabilizing). If the circulation slows, it brings in less salt, making the basin fresher, which further slows the circulation. This indicates a bistable regime where collapse is possible.

• Positive FovS (Importing Freshness): If the AMOC brings in fresher water than it exports, the feedback is negative (stabilizing). If the circulation slows, it brings in less freshwater, making the basin saltier, which reinvigorates the circulation. This indicates a monostable regime where the AMOC is resilient.¹⁰

Crucial Insight: Observational data indicates that the real-world Atlantic has a negative FovS (importing salt). We are in the bistable, vulnerable regime. However, many climate models have a bias where they show a positive FovS, artificially protecting them from collapse.¹²

3. The 2024 Alarm: Finding the Tipping Course Towards AMOC Stagnation

3.1 Moving Beyond Statistics

Before the 2026 review, the scientific community was shaken by a study published in February 2024 by van Westen, Kliphuis, and Dijkstra in Science Advances. Prior to this, attempts to predict an AMOC collapse relied heavily on statistical methods. Researchers looked for "critical slowing down" in sea surface temperature records—essentially measuring how long the system takes to recover from small wobbles. While useful, these statistical early warning signals (EWS) were often criticized as being indirect proxies that could be contaminated by other climate noise.⁷

The 2024 study took a different approach. They sought a physics-based early warning signal derived directly from the mechanisms of the salt-advection feedback.

3.2 The Experiment

The researchers utilized the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a high-resolution, comprehensive global climate model. They performed a massive computational experiment, running the model for over 4,000 simulation years. In this simulation, they slowly, incrementally increased the freshwater flux into the North Atlantic—simulating the meltwater from global warming.

For centuries of simulation time, the AMOC slowly weakened but held on. Then, suddenly, it reached a tipping point. Over a period of less than 100 years—a blink of an eye in geologic time—the circulation crashed from a healthy flow of roughly 17 Sverdrups (Sv) to near zero. It was the first time such a realistic, high-resolution model had been forced to show a complete tipping event.¹⁰

3.3 The Signal: FovS Minimum

The breakthrough of the 2024 paper was the identification of a precursor signal. They found that the freshwater transport at 34S (FovS) reached a minimum value roughly 25 years before the actual collapse occurred.

This minimum represents a critical threshold in the salt-advection feedback. As the freshwater forcing increases, the Atlantic's ability to export freshwater (or import salt) is pushed to its limit. When the FovS metric bottoms out, the system has lost its ability to self-correct. The feedback loop becomes dominant, and the collapse becomes inevitable.⁷

When the authors compared this model-derived signal with observational reanalysis data from the real world, the conclusion was stark: the present-day AMOC is moving toward this minimum. The paper declared that the system is "on tipping course," a finding that generated headlines worldwide and fundamentally shifted the baseline of the conversation from "if" to "when".¹⁵

4. The 2026 Annual Review: Stability in a Chaotic System

4.1 A Shift in Tone?

Two years after the alarming "tipping course" paper, Dijkstra and van Westen released their comprehensive review in the Annual Review of Marine Science (2026). At first glance, the abstract seems to walk back the catastrophe: it states that a complete AMOC collapse is "unlikely" in the 21st century.¹

Does this contradict their previous work? Not necessarily. The 2026 review represents a broadening of scope. While the 2024 paper isolated the physics of the tipping point in a controlled experiment, the 2026 review assesses the full complexity of the global ocean, including stabilizing feedbacks that were less central to the tipping experiment. It moves from identifying the danger to assessing the probability within a specific timeframe (0-75 years).

4.2 The Question of "Fit for Purpose"

A central theme of the 2026 report is the evaluation of current climate models. The authors ask: Are the Earth System Models (ESMs) used by the IPCC "fit for purpose" to predict AMOC stability?

The answer is largely "no." The review highlights that most CMIP6 models (the generation of models used for the 2021 IPCC report) have systematic biases that make them too stable.

1. Freshwater Bias: As noted, many models have a positive FovS, placing them in the monostable regime where collapse is physically impossible, contrary to observations.

2. Resolution Limits: Many models do not resolve the small-scale eddies (swirls of water 10-100 km wide) that play a crucial role in transporting salt and heat.

3. flux Corrections: To make models run stably, climate modelers sometimes apply "flux corrections"—artificial adjustments to heat and water exchanges. While this keeps the climate looking "normal," it can dampen the nonlinear feedbacks that lead to tipping.¹⁷

Because of these biases, the "unlikely" assessment from standard IPCC models might be a false sense of security. Dijkstra and van Westen argue that we must look beyond standard model projections and incorporate observational constraints and theoretical understanding of stabilizing mechanisms.¹

5. The Southern Ocean: The Wind-Driven Safety Net

5.1 The Drake Passage Effect

If the salt-advection feedback is pushing the AMOC toward a cliff, what is holding it back? The answer lies at the other end of the world: the Southern Ocean.

Unlike the Atlantic, which is boxed in by continents, the Southern Ocean is a continuous ring of water surrounding Antarctica. Here, the "Roaring Forties" and "Furious Fifties"—some of the strongest winds on Earth—blow relentlessly from west to east.

These winds drive a massive movement of surface water away from Antarctica (northward) due to the Coriolis effect (Ekman transport). This surface divergence creates a "hole" in the ocean that must be filled. It pulls deep water up from the abyss to the surface. This is the wind-driven upwelling.¹⁹

5.2 The Mechanical Pump

This upwelling acts as a mechanical pump for the global ocean circulation. It forces water to move.

• The Connection: The water pulled up in the Southern Ocean has to come from somewhere. A significant portion of it is drawn from the deep Atlantic (North Atlantic Deep Water).

• The Safety Net: Even if the density pump in the North Atlantic fails (because the water gets too fresh to sink), the wind pump in the Southern Ocean keeps running. The winds don't stop just because the North Atlantic gets fresh.

Therefore, the Southern Ocean "sucks" water through the Atlantic, sustaining a circulation even when the North Atlantic "push" is gone. This mechanical forcing prevents the AMOC from hitting zero. Instead of a total shutdown (0 Sv), the circulation might drop to a weak, wind-sustained state (e.g., 5-8 Sv).¹⁹

The 2026 review, supported by findings from Baker et al. (2025), identifies this as the primary reason why a total collapse is unlikely this century. The wind-driven upwelling provides a floor beneath which the AMOC cannot easily fall, absent a cessation of Southern Hemisphere winds (which is not projected to happen).²²

6. The Pacific Seesaw: A Failed Compensation

6.1 The Inter-Basin Balance

The global ocean must satisfy mass balance. If water goes down in the North Atlantic, it comes up in the Southern Ocean (and elsewhere). If the Southern Ocean pulls water up, it must go down somewhere.

In the current climate, the sinking happens in the Atlantic. The North Pacific is too fresh to sink; it has a strong "halocline" (a layer of fresh water on top) that prevents deep water formation. This is why there is no Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation (PMOC) today.²³

6.2 The Seesaw Mechanism

Paleoclimate evidence and models suggest an "Atlantic-Pacific Seesaw." If the AMOC weakens, the Northern Hemisphere cools. This changes the atmospheric circulation, shifting the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) south. This shift alters rainfall and evaporation patterns.

Ideally, this shift would make the North Pacific saltier. As the Atlantic dies, the Pacific would wake up, initiating a PMOC to balance the Southern Ocean upwelling.

6.3 Too Little, Too Late

The Dijkstra and van Westen review analyzes this compensation mechanism. They find that in models where the AMOC weakens, a PMOC does indeed try to emerge. Deep water formation begins in the North Pacific.

However, the report concludes that this compensation is inefficient. The emerging PMOC is "too weak" to balance the massive volume of upwelling driven by the Southern Ocean winds. It reaches perhaps 5 Sv, whereas the AMOC provides 15-20 Sv.

Implication: Because the Pacific cannot fully pick up the slack, the Atlantic is forced to continue overturning to satisfy the demand of the Southern Ocean winds. This creates a "tug-of-war" where the Southern Ocean forces the Atlantic to keep moving, preventing the total "off" state predicted by simple box models. This partial compensation is a key reason for the "unlikely" collapse verdict—the system has a backup generator, even if it is a weak one.⁶

7. Model Fitness: The Bias Problem

7.1 The "Too Stable" Bias

A recurring theme in the 2026 review is the unreliability of current generation climate models (CMIP6) for this specific problem. The authors detail how biases in salinity and freshwater flux lead to an overestimation of stability.

• The Indian Ocean Connection: Biases are not limited to the Atlantic. The report notes that freshwater biases in the Indian Ocean can propagate into the South Atlantic via the Agulhas Leakage (eddies of warm, salty water rounding the tip of Africa). If a model is too fresh in the Indian Ocean, it feeds less salt into the Atlantic, altering the stability profile.¹¹

• Resolution and Eddies: The salt-advection feedback relies on the transport of salt. In the ocean, much of this transport is done by mesoscale eddies—turbulent swirls that are 10-100km in size. Most global climate models have a resolution of 100km, meaning they cannot "see" these eddies. They must approximate (parameterize) them. The review suggests that this approximation often smooths out the salt transport, dampening the feedback loops that cause collapse.²⁶

7.2 Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Sampling (TAMS)

To address the difficulty of predicting "rare events" like AMOC collapse in these biased, computationally expensive models, the authors discuss the use of advanced algorithms.

TAMS is a statistical technique used to estimate the probability of rare transitions. Instead of running a simulation for 10,000 years and hoping to see a collapse (a "brute force" Monte Carlo approach), TAMS actively hunts for the collapse.

1. Run a set of simulations.

2. Identify the ones that are moving slightly closer to a collapse (e.g., AMOC weakens by 1 Sv).

3. Kill the simulations that are stable.

4. "Clone" the destabilizing simulations and run them forward with slight random variations.

5. Repeat.

This evolutionary approach allows researchers to map out the "transition pathways" and calculate the probability of collapse much more efficiently. It is through these methods that the authors refine the probability estimates, finding that while the onset of collapse (the crossing of the tipping point) has a non-negligible probability (approx 10-20% in some scenarios), the completion of collapse is delayed by the stabilizing mechanisms discussed above.²⁷

8. Global Consequences: A World Without the Pump

Even if the AMOC does not fully collapse, a significant weakening (e.g., 50%)—which is considered "likely" by many researchers—would have profound global consequences. The 2026 review synthesizes these impacts, painting a picture of a climate system in disarray.

8.1 The European Cold Blob

The most direct impact is thermal. The AMOC acts as a radiator for Europe. A shutdown or severe weakening turns this radiator off.

• The "Cold Blob": While the rest of the world warms due to greenhouse gases, the North Atlantic and Northwestern Europe would cool. Models predict a temperature drop of 3°C to 8°C in Scandinavia and the UK in a collapse scenario.

• Agriculture: This would slash the growing season. Crops that currently thrive in the UK or Northern France would fail. The winter frost line would move south.

• Storminess: The clash between the cooling North Atlantic and the warming tropics would intensify the jet stream, potentially driving more severe winter storms into Europe.²⁹

8.2 Sea Level Rise: The Dynamic Surge

Water in motion behaves differently than static water. The rotation of the Earth (Coriolis effect) pushes the northward-flowing Gulf Stream/AMOC to the right—towards Europe and away from America. This dynamic force literally piles water up in the middle of the ocean, keeping sea levels lower along the US East Coast.

If the AMOC slows, this push weakens. The pile of water slumps back toward the American coast.

• Magnitude: A full collapse could result in a dynamic sea level rise of up to 1 meter along the coast from New York to Miami. This is on top of the rise caused by melting ice and thermal expansion.

• Timing: Unlike meltwater rise, which is slow, this dynamic rise would happen synchronously with the AMOC slowdown, potentially causing a rapid jump in sea level over just a few decades.³¹

8.3 Disrupted Monsoons and the ITCZ

The AMOC transports heat across the equator, "stealing" heat from the South and giving it to the North. This keeps the Northern Hemisphere warmer. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)—the rain belt that circles the globe—sits where the heat is maximized. Currently, it sits slightly north of the equator.

If the AMOC dies, the North cools. The thermal equator shifts south. The ITCZ follows.

• Sahel Drought: The West African Monsoon would shift south, potentially leaving the Sahel region (just south of the Sahara) in permanent drought. This would destabilize agriculture for millions.³³

• Amazon Rainforest: The shift could bring more rain to the Southern Amazon and Northeast Brazil. While this might buffer the rainforest against fire in some regions, it represents a massive reorganization of the hydrological cycle, likely causing flooding in regions adapted to dry conditions and drought in regions adapted to wet.³⁴

8.4 Ecosystem Collapse

The deep ocean relies on the AMOC for oxygen. The sinking water in the North Atlantic is rich in oxygen absorbed from the atmosphere. It carries this oxygen to the abyss, ventilating the deep sea. A shutdown would stop this ventilation.

• Anoxia: Over centuries, the deep Atlantic could become anoxic (oxygen-depleted), leading to the extinction of deep-sea benthic ecosystems.

• Nutrients: The return flow brings nutrients to the surface. A shutdown would starve the surface plankton in the North Atlantic, collapsing the base of the marine food web and devastating fisheries.¹⁹

9. Paleoclimate: Echoes of the Past

The Dijkstra and van Westen review grounds its future projections in the hard data of the past. The Earth has run this experiment before.

9.1 The Younger Dryas (12,900 BP)

As the Earth warmed after the last Ice Age, the AMOC suddenly shut down. The culprit is believed to be Lake Agassiz, a colossal glacial lake in North America that burst its dam, flooding the North Atlantic with freshwater.

• Impact: Temperatures in Greenland fell by 10°C in a decade. Europe plunged back into ice-age conditions for 1,200 years. This event proves the AMOC is a "switch," not a dial. It can turn off abruptly.³⁶

9.2 The 8.2 ka Event

A similar, though smaller, event occurred 8,200 years ago. Another pulse of meltwater weakened the AMOC.

• Impact: This caused widespread cooling in Europe and severe drought in the Middle East and China. It serves as a crucial test case for models; many models struggle to reproduce the severity of this event, suggesting they are too insensitive to freshwater forcing.³⁸

These events validate the physics of the salt-advection feedback. They demonstrate that when the freshwater threshold is crossed, the system does not just slow down—it reorganizes.

10. Conclusion: The Probability of Tomorrow

The 2026 Annual Review of Marine Science article by Dijkstra and van Westen represents a maturation of AMOC science. It moves beyond the binary debate of "will it or won't it" into a nuanced risk assessment.

The Verdict:

• Is the AMOC on a tipping course? Yes. The 2024 discovery of the FovS minimum signal indicates the system is losing resilience and moving toward instability.

• Will it collapse by 2100? Probably not fully. The mechanical inertia of the Southern Ocean wind-driven upwelling provides a "floor" that likely prevents a total shutdown in this century.

• Are we safe? No. Even a partial weakening (which is likely) carries catastrophic risks: dynamic sea level rise for the US East Coast, agricultural disruption for Europe, and monsoon failure for the tropics.

The "unlikely" probability of total collapse is not a permission slip for complacency. It is a finding contingent on the continued blowing of the Southern Hemisphere winds and the specific biases of current models. If the models are more biased than we think, or if the winds shift, the "unlikely" could become "inevitable."

Ultimately, the report underscores that humanity is currently forcing a fundamental component of the Earth's life support system toward a state it has not experienced in over 10,000 years. Whether the transition is a sudden snap or a slow, agonizing grind, the message from the ocean is clear: the conveyor belt is slowing, and the consequences will be global.

Data Summary Tables

Table 1: Key Metrics of AMOC Stability

Metric	Description	Current Observation	Model Bias (CMIP6)	Implication
AMOC Strength	Volume of overturning transport (Sv).	~17 Sv	Varied (10-25 Sv)	Baseline health of circulation.
FovS	Freshwater transport at 34S.	Negative (Imports Salt)	Positive (Imports Fresh)	Models are artificially stable; Real world is bistable/vulnerable.
EWS	Early Warning Signals (Variance/Autocorrelation).	Increasing in SST/Salinity.	Often weak or absent.	System is losing resilience (approaching tipping point).

Table 2: Comparative Impacts of AMOC Scenarios

Scenario	Probability (21st Century)	Primary Driver	Key Impacts
Weakening (~30-50%)	Likely (>66%)	Greenhouse gas warming, thermal stratification.	moderate regional cooling (Europe), 10-20cm dynamic SLR (US), shifting rain belts.
Total Collapse (shutdown)	Unlikely (<10%)	Runaway salt-advection feedback.	Severe cooling (Europe -5°C to -10°C), >50cm dynamic SLR, monsoon collapse, ecosystem anoxia.

Citations:.¹

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