From Sunspots to Seattle: Understanding the Physics of the January 19 Aurora

Abstract

On January 19, 2026, the terrestrial magnetosphere is poised to undergo a severe perturbation resulting from the arrival of a high-velocity Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) originating from Solar Active Region 4341. This event, precipitated by an X1.9-class solar flare, has triggered a G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm Watch and an S4 (Severe) Solar Radiation Storm, creating a rare convergence of heliophysical phenomena with significant implications for the Pacific Northwest. This paper provides an exhaustive examination of the physical mechanisms driving this event, ranging from the magnetohydrodynamics of solar reconnection to the quantum mechanical relaxation of atmospheric oxygen responsible for auroral emissions. Furthermore, we analyze the specific viewing probabilities for Washington State, synthesizing real-time solar wind telemetry with localized meteorological forecasts for the Seattle, Yakima, and Ellensburg regions. By integrating the geophysics of the Dungey cycle with the microclimatology of the Cascade Range, we aim to provide the undergraduate scholar and the amateur observer with a scientifically rigorous yet narrative account of this potential historic display of the Aurora Borealis.

I. Introduction: The Convergence of Cycles

The relationship between the Earth and the Sun is often perceived as one of steady, radiative equilibrium—a constant bath of photons that drives our climate and sustains life. However, this perceived stability belies a violent, dynamic electromagnetic connection that fluctuates on timescales ranging from seconds to centuries. On Monday, January 19, 2026, this dynamic relationship will manifest in one of its most visibly dramatic forms: a severe geomagnetic storm capable of pushing the auroral oval, usually confined to the Arctic circle, deep into the mid-latitudes of the continental United States.¹

For the residents of Washington State, this event represents a unique intersection of orbital geometry, solar evolution, and atmospheric physics. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a G4 storm watch, a classification reserved for severe disturbances that occur only roughly sixty days per solar cycle.³ This forecast is driven by the arrival of a "full-halo" Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with a potent X1.9 solar flare observed on January 18.⁴

The timing of this event is fortuitous for observers in the Pacific Northwest. The projected arrival of the shock front coincides with local night on January 19, presenting a theoretical window of visibility extending from the Canadian border south to Oregon and beyond.¹ However, the realization of this spectacle is contingent upon a complex chain of physical dependencies: the magnetic orientation of the incoming solar plasma, the stability of the Earth's magnetotail, and the notoriously capricious tropospheric weather of the region during January.

This report seeks to deconstruct these dependencies. We will journey from the photosphere of the Sun, where the magnetic field lines first snapped, through the tenuous plasma of the heliosphere, into the chaotic turbulence of Earth's magnetosphere, and finally to the upper atmosphere above Washington, where electron precipitation paints the sky. We will also address the technological ramifications of such an event, including the S4 solar radiation storm currently in progress, which poses risks distinct from the visual aurora.⁷

II. The Solar Progenitor: Solar Cycle 25 and Region 4341

The Context of Solar Maximum

To understand the genesis of the January 19 storm, one must situate it within the broader context of the solar cycle. The Sun's magnetic activity waxes and wanes over an approximately eleven-year period, known as the Schwabe cycle. We are currently navigating the maximum phase of Solar Cycle 25. This cycle, which commenced in December 2019, was initially modeled by the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel to be a weak cycle, similar to its predecessor, Cycle 24.⁸ However, the observed reality has sharply diverged from these early models. Sunspot numbers and radio flux (F10.7) measurements have consistently exceeded predictions, indicating a more robust and active solar dynamo than anticipated.⁸

The solar dynamo mechanism, operating deep within the Sun's convective zone, generates magnetic fields through the motion of conductive plasma. Due to the Sun's differential rotation—where the equator rotates faster than the poles—these magnetic field lines become stretched and wound around the star, a process known as the omega effect. Over time, turbulence within the convective zone twists these toroidal fields into poloidal loops (the alpha effect), which can become buoyant and rise to the surface.⁹ Where these concentrated magnetic flux tubes puncture the photosphere, they inhibit convection, creating cooler, darker patches known as sunspots.

Active Region 4341: A Magnetic Powder Keg

The specific architect of the current storm is Active Region 4341, a large and complex sunspot group. In the days leading up to the eruption, this region developed a "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic configuration. In solar physics, this classification denotes a region where sunspots of opposite magnetic polarity are closely packed within the same penumbra.¹⁰ This proximity creates extreme magnetic shear, storing vast amounts of potential energy in the twisted coronal loops above the surface.

On January 18, 2026, at 18:09 UTC, this magnetic tension became unsustainable. The field lines, stressed beyond their limit, underwent a catastrophic reconfiguration known as magnetic reconnection. In this process, antiparallel magnetic field lines are forced together, breaking and instantly reconnecting in a lower-energy state. The excess magnetic energy is converted into kinetic energy and thermal energy with explosive efficiency.⁴

The X1.9 Flare and S4 Radiation Storm

The immediate result of this reconnection was an X1.9-class solar flare. The "X" designation places it in the most extreme category of solar flares, based on its peak X-ray flux as measured by the GOES satellites.⁴ The flare unleashed a torrent of electromagnetic radiation across the spectrum, traveling at the speed of light and ionizing Earth's dayside upper atmosphere mere minutes after the event.

However, the flare was accompanied by a particle phenomenon of significant concern: a Solar Radiation Storm. The reconnection event accelerated protons to relativistic speeds—fractions of the speed of light. These particles, guided by the interplanetary magnetic field lines (the Parker Spiral), streamed toward Earth, arriving well ahead of the slower-moving plasma cloud. By January 19, NOAA reported an S4 (Severe) Solar Radiation Storm in progress.⁷

An S4 event is rare and biologically significant for space operations. At this intensity, astronauts on the International Space Station may be required to shelter in shielded modules, and transpolar flights are typically diverted to lower latitudes to avoid exposing passengers and crew to excessive radiation doses.⁷ This stream of "hard" radiation bombards the upper atmosphere, causing ionization in the mesosphere and stratosphere, but it is not the primary driver of the visible aurora. For that, we must look to the slower, heavier mass of plasma that followed.

III. The Interplanetary Shock: Dynamics of the Coronal Mass Ejection

The Launch: Halo CME Geometry

While the flare is a flash of light, the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is a cannonball of matter. The eruption on January 18 ejected billions of tons of coronal plasma—mostly electrons and protons, with some heavier ions like helium and oxygen—into the heliosphere. Coronagraph imagery from the SOHO and STEREO satellites revealed a "full-halo" CME.⁵ In the two-dimensional projection of a coronagraph, a CME heading directly toward (or away from) the observer appears to expand equally in all directions around the Sun, forming a halo. This geometry confirmed that the ejecta was Earth-directed.¹²

The Transit: Velocity and Shock Formation

The transit time of a CME provides a direct measure of its kinetic energy. Typical solar wind flows at speeds between 300 and 400 kilometers per second. This CME, however, was accelerated to speeds exceeding 700 to 800 kilometers per second, classified as a fast CME.¹⁰

As this supersonic plasma cloud plowed through the slower ambient solar wind, it generated a collisionless shock wave ahead of it. This shock front is analogous to the sonic boom of a supersonic aircraft but governed by electromagnetic forces rather than collisional fluid dynamics. In the collisionless plasma of space, the shock is mediated by plasma instabilities and wave-particle interactions, specifically involving Alfvén waves.¹⁴ These magnetohydrodynamic waves transfer momentum and energy, heating the plasma and accelerating particles at the shock front.

This plowed-up region, known as the sheath, is a turbulent layer of compressed plasma and chaotic magnetic fields. Behind the sheath lies the magnetic cloud or flux rope—the coherent structure of the CME itself. The orientation of the magnetic field within this flux rope is the single most critical variable in forecasting the severity of the resulting geomagnetic storm.¹⁶

Monitoring at Lagrange Point 1

To predict the specific impact of this shock, scientists rely on spacecraft positioned at the first Lagrange Point (L1), a point of gravitational equilibrium located approximately 1.5 million kilometers upstream from Earth in the direction of the Sun. Satellites such as DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) and ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) act as "tsunami buoys," sampling the solar wind properties about 15 to 45 minutes before they strike Earth.¹⁸

On January 19, telemetry from these spacecraft indicated the arrival of the shock. The solar wind speed jumped, density spiked, and the total magnetic field strength (Bt) rose to 12 nanoTeslas (nT), significantly higher than the background levels of 5 to 7 nT.¹³ Crucially, forecasters watched the "Bz" component—the north-south direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

IV. Magnetospheric Coupling: The Physics of the G4 Storm

The "Bz" Factor and Magnetic Reconnection

The Earth acts as a giant dipole magnet, with field lines emerging from the southern hemisphere and re-entering in the northern hemisphere (magnetic north is actually a south pole in physical terms, attracting the north pole of a compass). At the subsolar point (the "nose" of the magnetosphere facing the Sun), Earth's magnetic field points northward.

If the incoming CME's magnetic field (Bz) is also northward (positive), the two fields are parallel. Like two magnets with the same polarity facing each other, they repel. The magnetosphere is compressed, but little energy is transferred, resulting in a "geomagnetically quiet" compression.

However, if the CME's field is southward (negative Bz), the fields are antiparallel. When they meet at the magnetopause (the boundary layer), they undergo magnetic reconnection. The Earth's closed field lines merge with the solar wind's open field lines, effectively "opening a door" in the Earth's magnetic shield.²⁰ This process allows solar wind energy, momentum, and mass to pour into the magnetosphere.

For the January 19 storm, the forecast and observations indicated periods of sustained southward Bz, creating a highly efficient coupling efficiency.¹⁰ This is the prerequisite for a G4 (Severe) storm.

The Dungey Cycle and the Magnetotail

The energy transfer driven by reconnection initiates a global circulation pattern known as the Dungey Cycle.

1. Dayside Reconnection: Solar wind field lines connect with Earth's field lines on the sunward side.

2. Transport: The solar wind drags these connected "open" field lines over the polar caps toward the night side of the Earth, stretching them into a long tail—the magnetotail.

3. Nightside Reconnection: As magnetic flux accumulates in the tail, the pressure builds. Eventually, the field lines in the tail pinch together and reconnect.

4. Convection: This nightside reconnection snaps the field lines back toward Earth, injecting high-energy plasma from the tail into the inner magnetosphere.²⁰

It is this "snap back" or substorm injection that powers the aurora. The electrons, accelerated by the electric fields associated with this convection, spiral down the magnetic field lines toward the polar regions. When a storm reaches G4 intensity, the magnetosphere is so overwhelmed with energy that the region of particle precipitation—the auroral oval—expands dramatically equatorward. Instead of being confined to 65-70 degrees latitude (e.g., Fairbanks, Alaska), the oval expands to 50 degrees or lower, encompassing Washington State.¹

V. Quantum Mechanics in the Thermosphere: The Auroral Spectrum

When these precipitating electrons slam into the upper atmosphere, they interact with the neutral gas atoms, primarily oxygen and nitrogen. The collisions transfer kinetic energy to the orbital electrons of the gas atoms, promoting them to higher, unstable energy states. As the atoms relax back to their ground states, they emit photons of specific wavelengths. The colors we see are dictated by the specific quantum mechanical properties of these transitions and the altitude at which they occur.

The Green Line (557.7 nm): The Primary Curtain

The most common auroral feature is the green curtain. This emission arises from atomic oxygen (O) at altitudes between 100 km and 300 km.²⁴ The specific transition is from the excited singlet-S state (¹S) to the singlet-D state (¹D).

This transition is notable because it is "forbidden" by the selection rules of electric dipole transitions in quantum mechanics. "Forbidden" does not mean impossible, but rather highly improbable, resulting in a very slow transition rate. An oxygen atom in the ¹S state will wait, on average, about 0.74 seconds before emitting a green photon.24

This relatively long lifetime implies that the atom must remain undisturbed for nearly a second. In the lower atmosphere, the air is too dense; an excited atom would collide with another molecule and lose its energy as heat (quenching) before it could emit light. However, at 100 km, the density is low enough that the atom has a fair chance of radiating before colliding. This is why the green aurora has a sharp lower boundary—below ~100 km, quenching dominates, and the light turns off.27

The Deep Red (630.0 nm): The High-Altitude Glow

During severe storms like the G4 predicted for January 19, observers often report a deep, blood-red glow, sometimes sitting atop the green curtains or appearing as a diffuse wash over the sky. This, too, is produced by atomic oxygen, but from a different transition: the relaxation from the singlet-D state (¹D) to the ground triplet-P state (³P).²⁹

This transition is even more strictly forbidden than the green line. The radiative lifetime of the ¹D state is approximately 110 seconds.26 For an atom to hold onto its energy for nearly two minutes without colliding with another particle requires a near-vacuum. Consequently, this emission can only occur at very high altitudes, typically above 300 km to 400 km.30

Because these high-altitude red emissions occur so far up, they are visible from much greater distances. An observer in Washington State might see the red top of an auroral display that is actually centered over British Columbia.

Nitrogen Emissions: The Stormy Purples

While oxygen provides the greens and reds, molecular nitrogen (N2) and ionized nitrogen (N2⁺) contribute blues and purples. The most prominent is the "First Negative Band" of N2⁺, emitting at 391.4 nm (violet) and 427.8 nm (blue).29

Unlike the "forbidden" oxygen transitions, these nitrogen emissions are "allowed" and happen almost instantaneously. They require higher energy electrons to ionize and excite the nitrogen molecules, meaning they are often associated with intense, energetic substorms. When these high-energy electrons penetrate deep into the atmosphere (down to 80-90 km), they produce a purple or pink lower border to the green curtains.25 This purple fringe is a hallmark of strong geomagnetic activity and fast-moving auroral forms.

VI. The January 19 Forecast: Parameters and Probabilities

The Geomagnetic Scale and Kp Index

NOAA utilizes the Kp index (Planetary K-index) to quantify geomagnetic disturbances. The scale is quasi-logarithmic, ranging from 0 to 9.

• Kp 0-2: Quiet.

• Kp 5: Minor Storm (G1).

• Kp 9: Extreme Storm (G5).³⁴

For the night of January 19, the forecast predicts Kp levels reaching 8, triggering the G4 (Severe) Watch.2 Historical data suggests that at Kp 7, the aurora is visible on the horizon as far south as Seattle and Chicago. At Kp 8 or 9, the viewline pushes to Oregon, Northern California, and Alabama.12

The "viewline" represents the southernmost point where aurora can be seen on the northern horizon. However, for an observer in Seattle (geomagnetic latitude ~53.1°), a Kp 8 storm places the city underneath the auroral oval, meaning the lights could appear directly overhead or even to the south, a rare phenomenon known as the aurora detaching from the pole.36

Timing and the "Substorm" Variable

The arrival of the CME is expected late on January 19 (UTC time January 20).37 The most intense displays usually occur around "magnetic midnight," which, for the US West Coast, roughly aligns with 11:00 PM to 2:00 AM PST. However, if the shock arrives earlier, activity could be visible as soon as evening twilight fades.

A critical factor is the chaotic nature of substorms. Even during a G4 storm, the aurora is not a static light bulb. It breathes. It goes through phases of quiet arcs followed by explosive "breakups" where the sky fills with dancing rays, followed by diffuse pulsating patches.26 Observers must be patient; a quiet sky can transform into a raging storm in minutes if a substorm injection occurs.

VII. Washington State: The Theater of Observation

While space weather provides the potential, terrestrial weather dictates the reality. Washington State, with its complex topography and diverse microclimates, offers a mixed bag of viewing opportunities for the January 19 event.

The Western Washington Challenge: Clouds and Light

For the populous I-5 corridor (Seattle, Tacoma, Everett), the forecast is problematic. The National Weather Service predicts "Mostly cloudy" conditions with a low of 36°F and humidity near 100% for the night of January 19.38 The combination of a marine layer and urban light pollution creates a "skyglow" effect—city lights reflecting off low clouds—which can obliterate even a strong aurora.

However, "mostly cloudy" is not "overcast." Breaks in the clouds are possible. During a G4 event, the aurora can be bright enough to punch through thin cirrus clouds or appear in gaps. Yet, the high humidity suggests a risk of fog, particularly in the low-lying areas of the Puget Sound convergence zone.39

The Rain Shadow Advantage: Eastern Washington

East of the Cascade Crest, the climatology changes. The mountains strip moisture from the Pacific flow, creating a rain shadow. Locations like Ellensburg and Yakima often enjoy clearer skies than the west side.

For January 19, the forecast for Yakima and Ellensburg indicates "Increasing clouds" but with periods of clarity potential.41 The dew point spread is narrow (Temp 28°F, Dew Point 27°F), creating a high risk of freezing fog in the valleys.43

To mitigate this, elevation is key. Observers are advised to seek higher ground to get above the valley fog.

• Table Mountain / Lion Rock (near Ellensburg): High elevation, dark skies, excellent horizon views.⁴⁴

• Yakima River Canyon: A designated Bureau of Land Management site with steep canyon walls that block light pollution from nearby cities.⁴⁵

Light Pollution and the Bortle Scale

To see the full dynamic range of the aurora—including the subtle reds and purples—a dark sky is essential. Astronomers use the Bortle Dark-Sky Scale to rate sky quality (1 is pristine, 9 is inner-city).

• Seattle: Bortle 8-9. Only the brightest auroral rays are visible, usually washing out to a pale gray.⁴⁷

• Snoqualmie Pass / foothills: Bortle 4-5. The Milky Way is visible; aurora colors become distinct.

• Remote Eastern WA / North Cascades: Bortle 1-2. The "gegenschein" is visible; the aurora can cast shadows.⁴⁸

The January 19 event coincides with a New Moon phase (or very low lunar illumination), which is the ideal background condition. There is no moonlight to compete with the aurora, maximizing contrast.⁵

VIII. Technological and Biological Impacts: The Invisible Hazard

While the public focus is on the visual spectacle, a G4 storm carries significant technological risks.

The Power Grid: Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC)

When the magnetic field shakes, it induces electric currents in the ground. These Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) can flow up the grounding lines of electrical transformers, driving them into magnetic saturation. This can cause overheating, harmonic distortion, and voltage collapse. The most famous example occurred in March 1989, when a similar storm caused the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec grid in 90 seconds.50

Modern grid operators, alerted by SWPC watches, take protective measures such as reducing load on sensitive lines and decoupling transformers. However, localized voltage fluctuations in Washington State are possible during the storm's peak.52

Navigation and Communication: The Ionospheric Disturbance

The ionosphere—the charged layer of the atmosphere used to bounce radio signals—becomes turbulent during a storm. This disrupts High Frequency (HF) radio communications, causing blackouts for trans-oceanic flights and amateur radio operators.53

Furthermore, the turbulence changes the density of the ionosphere, altering the speed at which GPS signals travel from satellites to the ground. This introduces timing errors, which translate to position errors in GPS receivers. During a G4 storm, GPS accuracy can degrade by meters, affecting precision agriculture and surveying operations.50

Aviation and Radiation

The concurrent S4 Radiation Storm poses a specific risk to aviation. The flux of high-energy protons penetrates the fuselage of aircraft flying at high altitudes near the poles. To protect crews and passengers from exceeding recommended radiation limits, airlines often reroute polar flights to lower latitudes during S4 events.⁷ This results in delays and increased fuel consumption but ensures safety.

IX. Conclusion: A Planetary Spectacle

The geomagnetic storm of January 19, 2026, represents a convergence of high-energy astrophysics and atmospheric beauty. Driven by the renewed vigor of Solar Cycle 25, a massive expulsion of solar plasma is currently racing across the inner solar system, destined to collide with Earth's magnetic defenses. The result will be a global display of the Dungey cycle in action—a transfer of terawatts of power from the solar wind into the upper atmosphere.

For the observer in Washington State, the event offers a rare opportunity to witness phenomena typically reserved for the high Arctic. While the vagaries of the Pacific Northwest winter weather remain the primary obstacle, the combination of a G4 forecast, a dark moonless sky, and the high latitude of the state maximizes the probability of a sighting. Whether viewed as a complex interaction of magnetohydrodynamic forces or simply as a "celestial fire," the aurora borealis of January 19 serves as a potent reminder of our planet's dynamic and intimate connection to its parent star.

As we look north from the dark ridges of the Cascades or the shadowed canyons of the Yakima River, we are witnessing the visible signature of the invisible shield that protects our biosphere—a shield that, tonight, is ringing like a bell under the impact of the sun.

Table 1: Summary of Key Event Parameters for Jan 19, 2026

Parameter	Value/Status	Significance for Washington State
Solar Source	Region 4341 (X1.9 Flare)	High-energy driver indicates rapid storm onset.
Geomagnetic Scale	G4 (Severe)	Aurora likely visible overhead or to the South.
Kp Index Forecast	Kp 8 to 9	Viewline extends to CA/OR border.
Solar Wind Speed	> 700 km/s	Fast transit; stronger impact compression.
Bz Component	Fluctuating / Southward	Negative Bz is the "key" to unlock the magnetosphere.
Radiation Scale	S4 (Severe)	Radiation hazard for polar aviation/spaceflight.
Local Weather (West)	Mostly Cloudy / Fog	Poor visibility; seek breaks in clouds.
Local Weather (East)	Variable / Freezing Fog	Better chances; seek elevation above fog.
Moon Phase	New Moon	Ideal contrast (dark skies).

X. Detailed Physical Mechanisms (Appendix)

A. The Physics of the Flux Rope

The CME is not a shapeless cloud but a structured magnetic entity known as a flux rope—a helical magnetic field wrapped around a central axis. As this rope expands into the heliosphere, it maintains its connection to the Sun until reconnection severs it. The helicity (twist) of this rope determines the prolonged duration of the Bz component. If the leading edge of the rope has southward Bz, the storm begins immediately upon impact. If the trailing edge is southward, the storm may start hours after the shock arrival. This internal structure is what DSCOVR measures to give short-term warnings.¹⁷

B. Atmospheric Quenching Rates

The visibility of the red aurora (630.0 nm) is strictly height-dependent due to quenching. The de-excitation rate A is competing with the collisional rate C.

The intensity of emission I is proportional to:

I ∝ A / (A + C)

For the red line, A is very small (0.007 s^-1}).

At low altitudes (e.g., 100 km), the density is high, so C is very large (millions of collisions per second). Thus C >> A, and the intensity I approaches zero.

At high altitudes (>300 km), density is low, so C is small. A becomes comparable to or larger than C, allowing the emission to proceed. This altitude stratification is a fundamental constraint of auroral physics.26

C. The Current Wedge and Dipolarization

During the substorm expansion phase (the "breakup" of the aurora), the magnetic field in the magnetotail changes shape from a stretched, tail-like configuration to a more rounded, dipole-like configuration. This "dipolarization" releases magnetic stress. The current that was flowing across the tail is diverted along field lines down to the ionosphere, creating the Substorm Current Wedge. This massive electrical current flows horizontally through the ionosphere (the auroral electrojet), which is detected by magnetometers on the ground as a sharp deflection in the magnetic field—the signature of the storm for scientists on the surface.²¹

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