One Giant, Two Fates: Unmasking Population Outcomes the African Forest & Savanna Elephants

1. Introduction: The Taxonomic Schism and a New Era of Conservation

The conservation narrative of the African elephant has, for the better part of a century, been dominated by a singular identity. Management strategies, international treaties, and public perception largely treated the continent's proboscideans as a monolithic entity, Loxodonta africana. This unified classification, while administratively convenient for global bodies like CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora), frequently obscured the profound biological, ecological, and behavioral divergences that exist between the elephants roaming the arid savannas of Southern and East Africa and those navigating the dense, humid rainforests of Central and West Africa.

The release of the 2021 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessment marked a definitive watershed moment in the history of wildlife biology. It formally dismantled the single-species framework, recognizing the African Savanna Elephant (Loxodonta africana) and the African Forest Elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) as two distinct species.¹ This decision was not merely a clerical adjustment of taxonomy but a response to an overwhelming accumulation of genetic, morphological, and ecological evidence gathered over two decades of rigorous scientific inquiry.³

The implications of this taxonomic bifurcation are severe and far-reaching. Under the previous single-species classification, the robust numbers of savanna elephants in Southern Africa often masked the catastrophic, silent decline of forest elephants in the Congo Basin. With the split, the conservation status of each lineage was laid bare: the savanna elephant was classified as Endangered, while the forest elephant was immediately categorized as Critically Endangered.¹ This designation reflects a harrowing reality—a population decline of more than 86% over a period of just 31 years, driven by a relentless ivory trade and the insidious fragmentation of their forest dominion.⁴

As we move further into the Anthropocene, the challenges facing these two species are diverging as sharply as their evolutionary paths. The year 2024 brought the release of the landmark African Forest Elephant Status Report, which provided the first dedicated, comprehensive population estimate for Loxodonta cyclotis using advanced DNA-based methodologies.⁵ Simultaneously, the 2022 KAZA (Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area) survey offered critical insights into the stability of the world’s largest savanna elephant population.⁶

This report aims to provide an exhaustive, nuanced analysis of the current status of the genus Loxodonta. It moves beyond simple population arithmetic to explore the intricate web of ecological dependencies these animals support—from the carbon-sequestering "megagardeners" of Gabon to the water-divining landscape architects of the Okavango. Furthermore, it dissects the escalating biological threats posed by climate change, including thermal physiological constraints and the emergence of novel pathogens, alongside the persistent, shifting dynamics of the illegal wildlife trade.

2. Taxonomic and Genetic Divergence: Evidence for Two Species

The formal recognition of two African elephant species is the culmination of a scientific debate that has simmered for decades. The distinction is grounded in deep evolutionary history, supported by genomic analysis that reveals a separation far more ancient than previously hypothesized.

2.1 Deep Evolutionary Roots and Genetic Distance

To understand the magnitude of the difference between L. africana and L. cyclotis, one must look at the molecular clock. Genetic sequencing of nuclear DNA has revealed that the ancestral lineages of forest and savanna elephants diverged approximately 2.5 to 5 million years ago.⁷ To place this in a comparative context, this divergence occurred nearly as long ago as the split between the human and chimpanzee lineages, and significantly predates the emergence of modern humans.

Furthermore, phylogenetic analyses indicate that the genetic distance between forest and savanna elephant populations corresponds to roughly 58% of the difference found between the genera Loxodonta (African elephants) and Elephas (Asian elephants).⁸ The Asian and African ancestral lineages diverged approximately seven million years ago, and the forest and savanna lineages began their separation only about a million years later.³ Such a high degree of genetic variation supports the conclusion that these are not merely subspecies or "ecotypes" adapted to different habitats, but ancient, independent evolutionary trajectories that have been shaped by distinct selective pressures for millions of years.

2.2 The Question of Hybridization

A primary counterargument to the two-species hypothesis was the observation of interbreeding. If the two forms could produce viable offspring, traditional biological species concepts might suggest they remain a single entity. However, extensive genetic sampling across the continent has demonstrated that hybridization is remarkably limited and geographically restricted.

Recent assessments examined over 100 localities across the forest-savanna ecotone—the transition zone where the two biomes meet—and found evidence of hybridization at only 14 sites.³ This suggests that while the two species are capable of interbreeding, they rarely do so in a way that affects the broader gene pool.

The genetic integrity of the species remains intact even in these potential mixing zones. In 9 of the 14 localities where hybrids were identified, they occurred alongside non-hybrid individuals of either one species or the other, rather than in a swarm of blended phenotypes. For instance, three localities contained hybrids living among pure African Forest Elephants, while six localities had hybrids living with pure African Savanna Elephants.³ This pattern of limited introgression indicates strong reproductive isolation mechanisms are at play. These mechanisms could be behavioral (different mating rituals or social structures), ecological (habitat preferences keeping them apart), or physiological, preventing the widespread homogenization of the two gene pools.³

2.3 Morphological and Ecological Distinctions

Beyond the invisible code of genetics, the physical and behavioral differences between the two species are distinct and functionally significant.

• Size and Structure: The African Savanna Elephant is significantly larger, with bulls weighing up to seven tons and standing roughly a meter taller at the shoulder than their forest counterparts.⁷ Their skeletons are adapted for carrying massive bulk over open terrain.

• Dentition and Tusks: The tusks of savanna elephants curve outwards, a shape conducive to digging for water and sparring in open environments. In contrast, the African Forest Elephant possesses straighter, downward-pointing tusks. This is a critical adaptation for maneuvering through dense vegetation; curved tusks would easily snag on vines and lianas, impeding movement.⁷

• Cranial Features: The ears of the forest elephant are more oval-shaped compared to the triangular, "Africa-shaped" ears of the savanna elephant. Their skulls also show distinct morphological differences in shape and robusticity.

• Social Ecology: Forest elephants tend to live in much smaller family groups, often composed only of a mother and her immediate offspring. This is likely an adaptation to the resource distribution in rainforests, where fruit trees are patchy and cannot support large herds. Conversely, savanna elephants frequently congregate in complex, multi-tiered clans of 70 or more individuals, coordinating their movements over vast distances to find water and grazing.⁷

3. Status of the African Forest Elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)

For decades, the African Forest Elephant was the "ghost" of the conservation world. Hiding in the impenetrable gloom of the Congo Basin's rainforests, they were notoriously difficult to count. Aerial surveys, the gold standard for counting savanna elephants, are useless over closed-canopy forests. Consequently, population estimates were often extrapolations based on dung counts—a method fraught with variables such as rainfall, humidity, and decay rates. The year 2024, however, marked a revolution in our understanding of this species with the release of the first dedicated African Forest Elephant Status Report.

3.1 The 2024 Population Assessment

The 2024 status report, published by the IUCN African Elephant Specialist Group (AfESG), provides the most granular and scientifically robust data to date. The report estimates a mean population of 135,690 forest elephants in the surveyed areas.⁵ The 95% confidence interval for this estimate ranges between 99,343 and 172,297 individuals. Additionally, there are estimated to be between 7,728 and 10,990 elephants in areas that were not systematically surveyed, relying on "guesses" derived from local knowledge and older, less reliable data.⁵

Superficially, this number might appear to be an increase over the 2016 estimate, which placed the population at approximately 114,000.¹¹ However, conservation experts and the report's authors are emphatic: this does not represent a biological recovery or population growth. Instead, it is a statistical artifact resulting from vastly improved survey coverage. In 2016, only 53% of the reported population estimates were based on reliable survey data. By 2024, that figure had risen to 94%.⁵ We are not seeing more elephants; we are simply seeing the remaining elephants more clearly.

3.2 Methodological Revolution: DNA Capture-Recapture

The leap in data quality is largely attributed to the widespread deployment of non-invasive DNA survey methods, specifically "genetic capture-recapture."

Traditional dung counts relied on finding dung piles along transects and using a conversion factor (defecation rate and decay rate) to estimate the number of animals. This method is indirect and prone to error if the decay rate assumptions are wrong (e.g., dung disappears faster in heavy rain).

The new standard involves collecting fresh dung samples and extracting DNA to identify unique genotypes—effectively a genetic fingerprint for each elephant. By resampling an area over time and determining how many unique genotypes are "recaptured" (found again in subsequent samples), statisticians can model the total population size with high precision. This method avoids the pitfalls of decay rates and provides direct evidence of individual animals.¹³ This technique was pivotal in Gabon, where a nationwide survey revealed a population of approximately 95,000 individuals—significantly higher than previous estimates derived solely from dung transects.¹³

3.3 Regional Distribution: The Central African Stronghold

The distribution of forest elephants is characterized by extreme inequality. The 2024 report confirms that Central Africa is the last true stronghold, harbouring nearly 95-96% of the global population.⁵

• Gabon: This single nation is the epicenter of forest elephant conservation. It is home to roughly 66% (approximately 95,000) of the world’s remaining forest elephants. The stability of Gabon's population is attributed to a combination of low human population density, large tracts of intact forest, and strict anti-poaching policies.⁵

• Republic of the Congo: The neighboring Republic of the Congo holds the second-largest population, accounting for approximately 19% of the total.⁵ Together, these two countries are the ark for the species.

• Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): Once a major range state, the DRC has seen its populations decimated by decades of civil conflict and uncontrolled poaching. The Okapi Wildlife Reserve, a World Heritage site, has suffered heavy losses.⁵

• West Africa: In stark contrast to Central Africa, the forest elephants of West Africa are teetering on the brink of extirpation. The populations here are fragmented, small, and isolated. Countries like Côte d'Ivoire (historically the "Coast of Ivory"), Ghana, and Nigeria possess only a negligible fraction of the total population. The W-Arly-Pendjari (WAP) complex, a transboundary landscape shared by Benin, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has seen catastrophic declines, losing an estimated 7,000 elephants in recent years.⁵ The West African populations are genetically distinct and critically important for maintaining the full genetic diversity of the species, yet their viability is in serious doubt.

3.4 The Illusion of Recovery and Persistent Threats

Despite the upward revision of population numbers due to better counting, the species remains Critically Endangered. The long-term trend analysis paints a bleak picture: a decline of more than 86% over a 31-year period ending in 2015.¹

Recovery for forest elephants is biologically constrained. They have one of the slowest reproductive rates of any mammal. The age of first reproduction is late (often into the teens or twenties), and the inter-calf interval (the time between births) is exceptionally long (5-6 years). This means that populations which crash due to poaching or disease cannot bounce back quickly. Recovery is a process measured in decades or centuries. A population loss that happens in five years of intense poaching might take fifty years to recover naturally.¹³

4. Status of the African Savanna Elephant (Loxodonta africana)

While forest elephants remain hidden in the gloom of the Congo Basin, the savanna elephants of Eastern and Southern Africa face a different set of challenges. The IUCN lists them as Endangered, acknowledging that while some populations are stable or even increasing, the overall continental trend has been one of decline.¹ The savanna elephant story is one of regional disparity: stability in the south, recovery in the east, and collapse in the west.

4.1 The KAZA TFCA Survey (2022)

The Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA) represents the largest terrestrial transboundary conservation area in the world. Spanning five countries—Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—it is an area roughly the size of France and serves as the primary global stronghold for the savanna elephant.

In 2022, a synchronized aerial survey was conducted across this massive landscape to provide a unified population estimate. The results, released recently, estimated a total population of 227,900 individuals.⁶ This immense survey was a logistical triumph, involving multiple aircraft flying coordinated transects to avoid double-counting herds that move across borders.

• Botswana: The country remains the host of the world’s largest elephant population. The KAZA portion of Botswana alone is estimated to hold 131,909 individuals. This number has remained relatively stable compared to the 2014/2015 estimates (129,939).¹⁵

• Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe holds the second-largest population within KAZA, with an estimate of 65,028 individuals, showing an increase from the previous estimate of 57,398.¹⁵

• Namibia: The Namibian component of KAZA holds approximately 21,090 elephants, a slight increase from 19,549.¹⁵

• Angola: Perhaps the most promising news comes from Angola, where populations are recovering after being decimated during the civil war. The estimate rose from 3,395 to 5,983.¹⁵

• Zambia: In contrast to the other partners, the Zambian component of KAZA showed a concerning decline, dropping from 6,688 to 3,840.¹⁵

The overall stability of the KAZA population (representing over 50% of the remaining savanna elephants on the continent) is a major conservation success. However, it also creates localized challenges. High elephant densities in confined areas can lead to habitat modification (e.g., converting woodlands to shrublands) and intense human-wildlife conflict. The survey highlighted that elephant movement is increasingly blocked by fences, roads, and settlements. This "compression" effect prevents elephants from dispersing into historical ranges, emphasizing the critical need for wildlife corridors to allow these vast herds to move freely and reduce pressure on specific landscapes.⁶

4.2 East and West African Populations

Outside of the southern stronghold, the picture is more fragmented.

• East Africa: Countries like Kenya and Tanzania have seen some stabilization following the peak poaching crisis of 2011-2014. Kenya has reported reduced poaching rates in recent years, a result of strengthened law enforcement and community conservation initiatives. However, the threat in East Africa is shifting from the gun to the climate; severe droughts have recently claimed more elephants than poachers in some years.¹⁶

• West Africa: The savanna elephants of West Africa face a dire future. Much like their forest cousins in the region, they exist in small, isolated pockets surrounded by high human population density and agricultural expansion. The 2024 report notes that in West Africa, the boundary between forest and savanna elephant range is often blurred, and genetic admixture may occur. The W-Arly-Pendjari (WAP) complex remains the only significant refuge, but it is increasingly threatened by regional insecurity and jihadist insurgencies that make conservation work dangerous and difficult.⁵

Table 1: Comparative Conservation Status of African Elephant Species

Feature	African Forest Elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)	African Savanna Elephant (Loxodonta africana)
IUCN Status	Critically Endangered (2021)	Endangered (2021)
Primary Habitat	Dense tropical rainforests (Central/West Africa)	Savannas, woodlands, deserts (East/Southern Africa)
Population Est.	~135,690 (2024 Report) 5	~415,000 (2016 Est.) / Stable in KAZA (227,900) 15
Trend	Declined >86% (1984-2015); No biological recovery yet 5	Decreasing continent-wide; Stable/Increasing in South 17
Primary Threats	Poaching, Habitat Fragmentation, Slow Reproduction	Human-Elephant Conflict, Habitat Loss, Climate Change
Key Stronghold	Gabon (approx. 66% of population)	Botswana (approx. 130,000 individuals)

5. Ecological Engineers: The Functional Role of Loxodonta

The argument for conserving elephants extends far beyond their intrinsic value, cultural significance, or charisma. Both species act as "ecosystem engineers" and "keystone species," shaping the physical and biological architecture of their environments in ways that no other organism can duplication. Their removal from an ecosystem initiates a cascade of degradation that affects thousands of other species.

5.1 Forest Elephants: The Megagardeners of the Congo

Forest elephants play a role so specific and vital that they have been termed the "megagardeners" of the rainforest. Their ecological function is distinct from that of savanna elephants due to their diet and habitat.

Seed Dispersal: Forest elephants are obligate frugivores (fruit eaters) to a much greater extent than their savanna counterparts. Studies in Gabon and Cameroon have shown that they consume at least 96 species of fruit.¹⁸ Because they travel vast distances through the forest and have long gut passage times (often over 24 hours), they disperse seeds far from the parent tree, depositing them in a nutrient-rich medium of dung that facilitates germination. This dispersal service is critical for the propagation of specific tree species, particularly those with "megafaunal fruits"—fruits so large or with seeds so hard that smaller animals like monkeys or birds cannot swallow or process them. A seminal example is the tree Tieghemella heckelii, which relies almost exclusively on elephants for dispersal. Without elephants, these trees cannot effectively reproduce, leading to a gradual shift in forest composition.¹⁹

Carbon Sequestration: Perhaps the most profound insight in recent years is the direct link between forest elephants and global climate regulation. Forest elephants are selective browsers. They tend to browse on and trample small stems and fast-growing softwood trees. By thinning out this understory vegetation, they reduce competition for water, light, and nutrients among the larger trees. This "weeding" effect allows slow-growing, high-density hardwood trees—which store significantly more carbon per unit of biomass—to thrive and grow larger.

Modeling studies suggest that the loss of forest elephants results in a thickening of the understory with low-carbon species and a decline in large carbon-capturing giants. It is estimated that the extinction of forest elephants could result in a significant reduction (up to 7%) in the carbon storage capacity of the Central African rainforests. Thus, the conservation of Loxodonta cyclotis is not just a wildlife issue; it is a climate change mitigation strategy.¹⁹

5.2 Savanna Elephants: Landscape Architects

In the savanna, elephants function as agents of disturbance and creation. Their sheer physical power allows them to modify the landscape in ways that maintain the dynamic equilibrium of the ecosystem.

Tree-Grass Balance: By pushing over trees, stripping bark, and breaking branches, elephants prevent bush encroachment. They maintain the open savanna structure that is essential for grazing herbivores like zebras, wildebeest, and gazelles. Without elephants, many savannas would transition into closed-canopy woodlands or thickets, reducing the habitat available for grazing species and altering the fire regimes.²¹

Hydrological Engineering: In arid environments, savanna elephants are the gatekeepers of water. During dry seasons, they use their trunks and feet to dig for water in dry riverbeds. These excavations create temporary wells that are subsequently used by a host of other species—from lions and hyenas to bees and butterflies—which would otherwise perish from dehydration. Elephants also expand natural pans and waterholes by wallowing, carrying away mud on their bodies, and compacting the soil, which helps these depressions hold water for longer periods into the dry season.²¹

Nutrient Cycling and the Dung Beetle Connection: The volume of waste produced by elephants is massive, and its breakdown is a critical ecosystem service. Elephant dung is a primary resource for nutrient cycling. Dung beetles play a vital role here, rapidly burying elephant dung to use for breeding and feeding. This process aerates the soil and transfers essential nutrients (Nitrogen, Phosphorous, Potassium) and carbon underground, where they are accessible to plant roots.

Research indicates that larger species of dung beetles—which are often more efficient at deep-soil nutrient transfer—are particularly dependent on the large, moist dung boluses provided by megaherbivores. In the absence of elephants, dung remains on the surface, drying out and oxidizing, failing to return nutrients to the soil cycle effectively. This disruption can lead to impoverished soils and reduced primary productivity (plant growth), ultimately affecting the carrying capacity of the ecosystem for all herbivores.²³

6. Emerging Threats: Beyond the Poacher's Rifle

For decades, the conversation around elephant conservation has focused almost exclusively on the ivory trade. While poaching remains a critical threat, the risk landscape for African elephants is evolving. Biological and climatic threats are becoming increasingly prominent drivers of mortality, revealing the fragility of these giants in a rapidly changing world.

6.1 The 2020 Botswana and Zimbabwe Die-Offs

In 2020, the conservation community was alarmed by two mass mortality events in Southern Africa that were unrelated to poaching, signaling a new kind of environmental danger.

Botswana (The Okavango Delta Event): Between May and June 2020, approximately 350 elephants died mysteriously in the northern Okavango Delta. Carcasses were found with tusks intact, ruling out poaching for ivory. The localized nature of the deaths (affecting elephants but not scavengers like vultures) puzzled experts. Initial theories ranged from viral pathogens (like encephalomyocarditis) to malicious poisoning by disgruntled farmers.

Subsequent comprehensive investigations by the Botswana government and international labs confirmed that the cause was neurotoxins produced by cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) in waterholes.²⁵ The sequence of climatic events was the trigger: a severe drought in 2019 was followed by heavy rains in early 2020. This pattern likely caused a "resuspension" of accumulated nutrients and sediments in the waterholes, creating ideal conditions for massive algal blooms as the water warmed. As the waterholes began to dry and shrink later in the season, the concentration of toxins increased, becoming lethal to elephants that consume vast quantities of water (up to 200 liters a day). This event underscored how climate volatility can turn essential resources into deadly traps.²⁵

Zimbabwe (The Hwange/Victoria Falls Event): Later in 2020, a separate die-off occurred in Zimbabwe, claiming 35 elephants. Unlike the Botswana event, this was traced to a bacterial infection. Researchers identified a distinct taxon of Pasteurella bacteria, specifically Bisgaard taxon 45.27

This bacterium is related to Pasteurella multocida, the pathogen responsible for the mass die-off of 200,000 saiga antelopes in Kazakhstan in 2015. The infection caused hemorrhagic septicemia, leading to inflamed livers, spleens, and internal bleeding. Significantly, this pathogen had not previously been associated with elephant mortality. Its emergence raises fears that environmental stress—such as heat stress or poor nutrition due to drought—may be compromising the immune systems of elephants, making them susceptible to commensal bacteria that were previously dormant or benign.27

6.2 Climate Change and Physiological Constraints

Elephants are physiologically vulnerable to rising temperatures in ways that are often underestimated.

• Obligate Evaporative Coolers: Elephants lack sweat glands (except for a few around the toenails) and cannot sweat to cool down like humans or horses. They are "obligate evaporative coolers," meaning they rely on water to regulate their body temperature. They achieve this by bathing, spraying water on their skin, and allowing cutaneous water loss (water permeating through the skin and evaporating). This dependency binds them tightly to water sources.³⁰

• The Myth of Heterothermy: It was previously hypothesized that elephants might use "heterothermy"—allowing their body temperature to rise during the heat of the day and cooling off at night—to save water (a strategy used by camels). However, research using ingested temperature data loggers has shown that elephants maintain a strict homeothermy (stable body temperature) even in extreme heat. They do not allow their bodies to heat up; instead, they must actively cool down to maintain a core temperature of ~36.6°C.³²

• The Thermal Trap: As climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts and heatwaves, elephants face a "thermal trap." They need more water to cool down just as water becomes scarcer. This forces them to stay closer to permanent water sources, depleting the vegetation around them and leading to starvation.

• Demographic Impact: Models predict that climate change will disproportionately affect older elephants, who may have lower physiological resilience to thermal stress. The loss of these matriarchs and large bulls is catastrophic for elephant society; these older individuals carry the "social memory" of the herd, knowing where to find water and food during extreme droughts. Their loss reduces the adaptive capacity of the entire population.³⁴

Table 2: Key Recent Mortality Events and Drivers

Year	Location	Est. Mortality	Cause	Driver
2020	Okavango Delta, Botswana	~350	Neurotoxins (Cyanobacteria)	Drought followed by heavy rain triggering algal blooms 25
2020	Hwange/Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe	~35	Septicemia (Bisgaard taxon 45)	Bacterial infection; likely stress-mediated susceptibility 27
2021-22	Kenya (Tsavo/Amboseli)	>100	Starvation/Dehydration	Severe drought (worst in 40 years) depleting forage 16

7. The Illegal Wildlife Trade: Trends and Forensics

Although the rate of poaching has declined from the peak crisis years of 2011-2014, the illegal killing of elephants for ivory remains a significant pressure, particularly for forest elephants.

7.1 MIKE and Poaching Trends

Data from the CITES Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) program indicates a stabilization or downward trend in poaching in East and Southern Africa. However, Central and West Africa continue to face higher levels of illegal killing.¹⁴ The 2024 Forest Elephant Report highlights that while poaching has decreased slightly since 2018, it remains a primary driver of decline in the Congo Basin.⁵

7.2 DNA Forensics and Transnational Crime

The fight against trafficking has been revolutionized by the work of Dr. Samuel Wasser and the Center for Environmental Forensic Science. By mapping the genetics of elephant populations across Africa, they created a "genetic map" that allows them to pinpoint the geographic origin of seized ivory with remarkable precision.

• Linking Cartels: Recent analysis of ivory seizures has revealed that a handful of transnational criminal networks are responsible for the majority of the trade. By linking DNA from different seizures, Wasser’s team showed that the same cartels were moving ivory from different locations over many years. For example, tusks from the same elephant (separated during processing) have been found in different shipments seized years apart, linking the shipments to a single criminal entity. This evidence is crucial for prosecuting the leaders of these syndicates, not just the low-level poachers.³⁷

• Hotspots: The data consistently points to two main poaching hotspots: the Tridom area (tri-national border of Gabon, Congo, Cameroon) for forest elephants, and the Tanzania/Mozambique border regions for savanna elephants (though the latter has shifted over time).³⁷

7.3 Legislative Closures: Tightening the Net

The global market for ivory is shrinking due to legislative action.

• United Kingdom: The UK has taken a leading role with the Ivory Act 2018, often described as one of the toughest ivory bans in the world. In 2024/2025, the UK expanded this Act to include ivory from hippopotamus, killer whale, narwhal, and sperm whale.³⁹ This extension is critical because as elephant ivory becomes harder to trade, traffickers often shift to substitute species. Closing these loopholes prevents the laundering of elephant ivory and protects other vulnerable species.

• European Union: The EU has also tightened rules on ivory trade, significantly restricting the import and re-export of raw and worked ivory. However, loopholes for "pre-convention" antiques remain a challenge, and monitoring online markets shows that illegal ivory is still being advertised, often disguised or lacking proper documentation.⁴¹

8. Human-Elephant Conflict (HEC) and Coexistence

As elephant populations stabilize in some areas and human populations expand rapidly, the interface between the two is becoming a zone of friction. HEC is now arguably as great a threat to the long-term survival of savanna elephants as poaching.

8.1 The Conflict Landscape

In Kenya alone, HEC has resulted in hundreds of human deaths and thousands of livestock losses in recent years.⁴² The primary driver is habitat fragmentation. As agriculture expands into wildlife corridors, elephants are forced to traverse human-dominated landscapes to move between protected areas. When an elephant herd enters a farm, they can destroy a family's entire annual food supply in a single night. This economic devastation often leads to retaliatory killings of elephants.

8.2 Mitigation Science: Bees and Chilies

Conservationists are increasingly turning to "bio-fences" and non-lethal deterrents to foster coexistence.

Beehive Fences: Pioneered by Dr. Lucy King and Save the Elephants, beehive fences exploit the elephant's natural fear of bees (which can sting the sensitive skin inside the trunk). A series of beehives are connected by a wire; when an elephant tries to push through, the hives swing, releasing the bees.

• Efficacy: Recent long-term studies (2014-2023) in Kenya confirm their efficacy, showing that they deter up to 86.3% of farm invasions during peak crop seasons.⁴³

• Limitations: However, the effectiveness of these fences is climate-dependent. During severe droughts, bee colonies may abscond (abandon the hive) or die due to lack of water and flowers. This renders the fence ineffective exactly when elephants are most desperate for crops due to the same drought conditions. This highlights the need for integrated solutions that account for climate variability.⁴³

Chili Briquettes: Another method involves burning bricks made of chili pepper seeds and elephant dung. The noxious, spicy smoke acts as an olfactory repellent. Research in Botswana suggests that while chili briquettes alter elephant behavior (making them avoid the area while the smoke is active or shifting their activity to night), they function more as a short-term repellent than a long-term deterrent. They are best used as part of a toolkit rather than a standalone solution.⁴⁵

9. Conclusion: Better Data, Same Emergency

The current status of African elephants is defined by a dichotomy of clarity and crisis. We now possess the most accurate data in history regarding the number of forest elephants, thanks to the revolutionary DNA methods of the 2024 status report. We have deciphered the genetic codes that separate the two species, confirming their deep evolutionary divergence. We have mapped the criminal networks that plunder them and identified the physiological limits that constrain them in a warming world.

However, this clarity reveals a grim reality. The apparent "increase" in forest elephant numbers is a mirage of methodology; the species remains critically endangered, having lost the vast majority of its population in a single human generation. It is confined to a shrinking refuge in Central Africa, dependent on the stability of nations like Gabon. Savanna elephants, while numerically more robust in the south, face an existential squeeze between fences, farms, and a changing climate that threatens to dry up the very water sources they depend on.

The "better data" obtained in 2024 and 2025 does not change the emergency; it merely defines its contours more sharply. Conservation success in the coming decade will depend on recognizing the distinct needs of Loxodonta cyclotis and Loxodonta africana. It will require maintaining the connectivity of vast landscapes like KAZA to allow for adaptation to climate change, enforcing strict anti-trafficking measures guided by DNA forensics, and implementing coexistence strategies that are resilient to the vagaries of a destabilized climate. The bifurcation of the African elephant into two species was the first step in acknowledging their biological reality; saving them requires a global commitment that matches their ecological grandeur.

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