Photosynthesis for Sale: The Economics of Renewable Biofuel Standards

1. Introduction: The Convergence of Agriculture and Energy through Biofuels

For the majority of the industrial age, the global energy and agricultural systems operated as distinct, parallel pillars of the economy. Agriculture was the domain of biology, tasked with converting solar energy into caloric sustenance for the human population. The energy sector, conversely, was the domain of geology, extractive in nature, pumping ancient, fossilized carbon from the earth to power machinery and transport. However, the early 21st century witnessed a tectonic shift that forced these two spheres to converge. Driven by the dual imperatives of mitigating anthropogenic climate change and securing domestic energy independence, policy frameworks in the United States and Europe began to aggressively incentivize the conversion of agricultural commodities into transportation fuels.

This transition, initially hailed as a victory for both farmers and the environment, has evolved into a complex geopolitical and economic conundrum. The concept appeared elegant in its simplicity: replace the combustion of fossil carbon—which adds net greenhouse gases to the atmosphere—with biogenic carbon, which is cycled through the biosphere via photosynthesis.¹ If a soybean plant absorbs carbon dioxide as it grows, and that carbon is released when the soybean oil is burned as fuel, the theoretical net emission is zero. This logic underpinned the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) in the United States and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) in California, creating a guaranteed market for biofuels.³

However, as the industry has matured from the early days of corn ethanol to the current boom in biomass-based diesel, the scale of demand has begun to test the physical limits of the global agricultural system. We are no longer merely blending small amounts of ethanol into gasoline; we are now retrofitting massive petroleum refineries to process vegetable oils into "drop-in" diesel fuel capable of powering heavy-duty trucks, trains, and ships.⁵ This industrial pivot has elevated vegetable oils—once primarily a culinary staple—into a strategic energy asset.

The implications of this shift are profound and far-reaching. The surge in demand for feedstocks like soybean oil has fundamentally altered the economics of farming, creating a "decoupling" of price relationships that had held steady for decades.⁷ It has incentivized a global trade in waste oils that is rife with fraud and opacity.⁸ Most critically, emerging empirical research suggests that the global fungibility of vegetable oils means that domestic decarbonization policies may be inadvertently accelerating tropical deforestation, outsourcing carbon emissions to the rainforests of Southeast Asia rather than reducing them.⁹ This report provides an exhaustive analysis of these dynamics, exploring the chemical innovations, economic distortions, and environmental paradoxes that define the modern era of vegetable oil biofuels.

2. The Chemistry of Conversion: From Esters to Hydrocarbons

To understand the economic and environmental ripple effects of biofuel policy, one must first grasp the underlying chemistry. The term "biofuel" is often used as a catch-all, but it obscures a critical technological evolution. The industry has moved from "First Generation" Biodiesel (FAME) to "Second Generation" Renewable Diesel (HVO). This is not merely a branding change; it represents a fundamental shift in chemical processing that dictates feedstock requirements, infrastructure needs, and fuel quality.¹¹

2.1 First Generation: The Era of Transesterification (FAME)

Historically, the primary method for converting vegetable oils into fuel was transesterification. In this chemical process, a triglyceride—the main molecular constituent of fats and oils—is reacted with an alcohol in the presence of a catalyst.¹²

2.1.1 The Molecular Mechanism

A triglyceride molecule can be visualized as a capital "E". The vertical backbone is glycerol, and the three horizontal bars are fatty acid chains. These fatty acids contain the energy density required for fuel. However, the glycerol backbone makes the molecule too viscous to burn efficiently in a modern diesel engine; it would gum up fuel injectors and cause incomplete combustion.

Transesterification solves this by breaking the bonds between the glycerol and the fatty acids. The reagent used is typically methanol (an alcohol derived largely from natural gas).¹² In the presence of a base catalyst (such as sodium hydroxide or potassium hydroxide), the methanol attacks the triglyceride. The glycerol backbone is stripped away and replaced by the methyl group from the methanol. The result is three separate molecules of Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAME)—the chemical name for biodiesel—and one molecule of glycerol as a byproduct.⁵

2.1.2 The Glycerol Burden and Chemical Limitations

The production of FAME creates a significant logistical challenge: for every 10 pounds of biodiesel produced, approximately 1 pound of crude glycerol is generated.⁵ While glycerol has uses in cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and animal feed, the surge in biodiesel production often floods the market, depressing glycerol prices and creating a waste disposal issue.

More importantly, the FAME molecule itself has inherent flaws as a fuel. It contains oxygen atoms (bonded in the ester group). This oxygenation means FAME is hygroscopic—it attracts and holds water.¹⁴ In storage tanks, this moisture can promote bacterial growth, leading to sludge formation and corrosion.¹ Furthermore, the molecular structure of FAME creates a high "cloud point." In cold weather, the fuel molecules begin to crystallize and gel, clogging fuel filters. Because of these limitations, FAME is rarely used as a 100% standalone fuel. Instead, it is blended with petroleum diesel at concentrations of 5% (B5) to 20% (B20).¹

2.2 Second Generation: The Rise of Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO)

Recognizing the limitations of FAME, the energy industry adapted technology from petroleum refining to create Renewable Diesel, also known as Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO). Unlike FAME, HVO is a paraffinic hydrocarbon. It is chemically indistinguishable from high-quality petroleum diesel, containing no oxygen, sulfur, or aromatics.¹¹

2.2.3 The Hydrotreating Process

The production of renewable diesel occurs in a hydrotreater, a high-pressure reactor vessel. Instead of reacting the oil with methanol, the feedstock is reacted with hydrogen gas at high temperatures (typically 300°C to 400°C) and pressures.¹⁶ This process, known as hydrodeoxygenation, strips the oxygen atoms from the triglyceride molecule entirely.

There are three primary reaction pathways that can occur inside the reactor, each with different economic and atomic implications:

1. Hydrodeoxygenation (HDO): In this pathway, the oxygen atoms are removed by reacting with hydrogen to form water (H2O). The carbon backbone of the fatty acid remains intact. This is the most "carbon-efficient" pathway because it preserves the energy content of the carbon chain. However, it is chemically expensive because it consumes a massive amount of hydrogen.¹⁷

2. Decarboxylation (DCO2): In this reaction, the oxygen is removed in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2). This process cleaves one carbon atom off the fatty acid chain. While it consumes less hydrogen than HDO, it slightly reduces the volume of fuel produced because that carbon atom is lost to the atmosphere rather than remaining in the fuel.¹⁷

3. Decarbonylation (DCO): Similar to decarboxylation, oxygen is removed as carbon monoxide (CO) and water. This also results in a carbon chain that is one atom shorter than the original fatty acid.¹⁷

Refiners use specialized catalysts—typically nickel-molybdenum (NiMo) or cobalt-molybdenum (CoMo) on alumina or silica supports—to control these reactions.¹⁶ The choice of catalyst and operating conditions allows the refiner to balance the high cost of hydrogen against the desire for maximum fuel yield.¹⁸

2.2.4 Isomerization: Engineering Cold Weather Performance

The product exiting the hydrotreater consists largely of "n-paraffins"—long, straight chains of carbon and hydrogen. Physically, these resemble candle wax. While they are excellent fuel, they have high melting points. If you put 100% n-paraffins in a truck in North Dakota in January, the fuel would solidify.²¹

To correct this, the fuel undergoes a second catalytic step called isomerization. In this process, the straight carbon chains are physically rearranged to have branches, transforming them into "iso-paraffins".²¹ Imagine a stack of lumber (straight chains) packing tightly together; this is a solid. Now imagine a pile of tree branches; they cannot pack tightly, leaving space between them. This branching prevents the molecules from crystallizing at low temperatures, significantly lowering the "cloud point" and "pour point" of the fuel.²³

This isomerization step is what allows renewable diesel to be used as a 100% drop-in fuel (R100) even in freezing climates, a capability that FAME biodiesel lacks.¹⁴ It also enables the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which requires even more stringent cold-flow properties for operation at high altitudes.²⁵

2.3 The Infrastructure Advantage and Refinery Conversion

The chemical equivalence of renewable diesel to petroleum diesel has allowed for a unique and rapid expansion strategy: the conversion of existing assets. Petroleum refineries are essentially giant hydroprocessing plants. They already possess the hydrogen units, the high-pressure reactors, the pipelines, and the rail terminals required for HVO production.⁵

Rather than building greenfield plants from scratch, companies like Phillips 66 have converted aging crude oil refineries, such as the facility in Rodeo, California, into renewable fuel complexes. By ceasing crude oil operations and retrofitting the hydrocrackers to process soybean oil, tallow, and cooking oil, these facilities can ramp up production capacity at a speed and scale that the traditional biodiesel industry could never match.⁶ This "capital efficiency" is a major driver of the renewable diesel boom, allowing capacity to grow from negligible amounts to billions of gallons in just a few years.²⁷

3. The Policy Stack: Incentivizing the Boom

The rapid expansion of renewable diesel capacity is not a phenomenon driven purely by free-market mechanics. It is the result of a sophisticated "stack" of government incentives that make the production of these fuels artificially profitable. In many cases, the combined value of the subsidies exceeds the value of the fuel itself.

3.1 The Federal Pillar: The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)

Enacted in 2005 and expanded in 2007, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is the bedrock of U.S. biofuel policy. It mandates that a certain volume of renewable fuel be blended into the nation's transportation fuel supply each year.⁴

The mechanism for enforcement is the Renewable Identification Number (RIN). A RIN is a serial number attached to a batch of biofuel. When a refiner blends that fuel, the RIN is "separated" and can be used to prove compliance or sold to other refiners who failed to meet their quotas.⁴

The RFS creates a nested hierarchy of fuels.

• D6 RINs: Generally for corn ethanol. These are the most basic credit.

• D4 RINs: For biomass-based diesel (biodiesel and renewable diesel).

• Nesting: Crucially, D4 RINs can be used to satisfy the D4 requirement and the general renewable fuel requirement. This means D4 RINs are intrinsically more valuable. Furthermore, renewable diesel has an "equivalence value" of 1.7, meaning every physical gallon generated 1.7 RINs (reflecting its higher energy density compared to ethanol).⁴

This system creates a guaranteed demand. Regardless of the price of oil, refiners must buy these RINs, effectively creating a subsidy paid by fossil fuel producers to biofuel producers.

3.2 The State Pillar: California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)

While the RFS focuses on volume, California’s LCFS focuses on carbon intensity (CI). The LCFS sets a declining benchmark for the carbon footprint of transportation fuel. Fuels below the benchmark generate credits; fuels above it (like gasoline and diesel) generate deficits.³⁰

The value of an LCFS credit is determined by the lifecycle analysis of the fuel. This is where the feedstock hierarchy becomes critical.

• Waste Oils (Used Cooking Oil, Tallow): These feedstocks are considered to have zero land-use impact. Their CI scores are extremely low (often 20-40 gCO2e/MJ), generating massive numbers of credits.³¹

• Crop-Based Oils (Soybean, Canola): These feedstocks carry a burden. The regulator assigns an "Indirect Land Use Change" (ILUC) penalty to them, assuming that using them for fuel displaces food production and causes deforestation elsewhere. A soybean oil pathway might have a CI of 50-55 gCO2e/MJ, compared to fossil diesel’s ~100 gCO2e/MJ.³²

Despite the ILUC penalty, the sheer size of the California market means that biomass-based diesel now accounts for nearly 60-75% of the state’s diesel pool, with the vast majority of U.S. renewable diesel flowing west to capture these credits.³

3.3 The Fiscal Pillar: Tax Credits (BTC to 45Z)

The third layer of the stack is direct tax incentives. For years, the industry relied on the Blender’s Tax Credit (BTC), a retroactive $1.00 per gallon credit for every gallon of biodiesel or renewable diesel blended.³⁵

However, the Inflation Reduction Act introduced a pivotal shift. Starting in 2025, the BTC transitions to the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit. Unlike the flat BTC, 45Z is performance-based. The value of the tax credit will fluctuate based on the specific CI score of the fuel produced.³⁶ This policy change is causing massive uncertainty in the market. A producer using low-CI used cooking oil could receive a significantly larger tax break than one using soybean oil. Furthermore, legislative ambiguity regarding whether foreign feedstocks will qualify for 45Z has paralyzed long-term contracting, contributing to the volatility in soybean oil prices seen in early 2026.³⁵

4. Feedstock Dynamics: The Struggle for Supply

The technological capability to refine vegetable oil into diesel is now mature, and the policy incentives are in place. The limiting factor has shifted to the raw material: the feedstock. The boom in renewable diesel has turned the global vegetable oil market into a zero-sum game.

4.1 Soybean Oil: The Volume King

Soybean oil is the primary feedstock for the U.S. biofuel industry simply because of its scale. The United States is a massive producer of soybeans. However, the soybean is not an oil crop; it is a protein crop. A soybean is roughly 80% meal and only 20% oil by weight.³⁷

To get more oil, you must crush more beans, which inevitably creates more meal. This biological constraint means that soybean oil supply is inelastic relative to demand. You cannot simply "turn up" oil production without flooding the market with protein meal. Despite this, the RFS and LCFS drove soybean oil’s share of biofuel feedstocks to nearly 50% at the height of the boom.³⁸

4.2 Canola Oil: The Cold Weather Specialist

Canola oil has gained market share, particularly for renewable diesel, because of its chemical profile. It has a lower cloud point than soybean oil, making it easier to process into winter-grade fuels. However, U.S. production is limited, leading to a reliance on imports from Canada. Recent policy shifts have allowed canola to generate RINs, further integrating it into the energy supply chain.³⁹

4.3 Waste Oils and Fats: The Holy Grail

From a carbon accounting perspective, Used Cooking Oil (UCO) and animal tallow are the ideal feedstocks. They have low CI scores and high LCFS values. However, the supply of waste is naturally limited—restaurants only fry so many potatoes, and meatpackers only process so many cattle.

This scarcity has created a perverse market dynamic. The demand for UCO is so high that it trades at a premium to virgin vegetable oil, a phenomenon that invites fraud.⁴⁰

5. The Economic Transformation: Crush Spreads and Price Decoupling

The renewable diesel boom has fundamentally rewired the economics of the U.S. soybean complex, disrupting pricing relationships that had held for decades.

5.1 The Crush Spread Mechanics

The profitability of a soybean processor is determined by the "crush spread"—the difference between the cost of the raw soybeans and the combined value of the oil and meal produced.

Crush Margin = (Value_Meal + Value_Oil) - Cost_Soybeans

Historically, meal was the driver. It accounted for roughly 65-70% of the crush value, with oil providing the remaining 30-35%. Oil was a byproduct to be disposed of in salad dressings and frying vats.⁷

5.2 The Decoupling Event (2021-2024)

As renewable diesel capacity came online, the demand for oil surged independently of the demand for meal. This caused a dramatic "decoupling."

• Oil Share of Value: The contribution of oil to the total crush value spiked, reaching nearly 50% in 2021 and remaining elevated through 2025.⁷

• Meal Oversupply: To satisfy the thirst for oil, crushers ran at maximum capacity. This produced a glut of soybean meal. Since the livestock industry (the consumer of meal) did not expand at the same rate, meal prices faced severe downward pressure.⁴¹

5.3 Livestock Implications

This dynamic created an unexpected winner: the livestock industry. Hog and poultry producers found their feed costs effectively subsidized by the energy sector. High oil prices paid by fuel refiners allowed crushers to sell meal at a discount while still maintaining healthy margins. This structural shift means that the price of bacon in the grocery store is now inversely correlated with the mandate for renewable fuel.⁴³

Metric	Historical Norm (Pre-2020)	Biofuel Boom Era (2021-2025)
Soybean Oil Share of Crush Value	30% - 35%	40% - 50%
Primary Driver of Crush	Protein Meal Demand	Biofuel Feedstock Demand
Oil/Meal Price Correlation	Highly Correlated	Decoupled / Inverse
US Soy Oil Net Trade Position	Net Exporter	Net Importer (occasional)

6. The Environmental Paradox: Leakage and Deforestation

The entire edifice of biofuel policy is built on the premise of environmental benefit. However, a growing body of academic work, spearheaded by researchers like Aaron Smith, Tzu-Hui Chen, and Richard Sexton, suggests that using vegetable oils for fuel may actually be worse for the climate than burning fossil diesel.

6.1 The Theory of Leakage

The core problem is "fungibility." The global vegetable oil market is a single, interconnected pool. If the U.S. diverts 40% of its soybean oil into fuel production, that oil disappears from the global food market. However, global food demand is inelastic—people do not stop eating because oil is expensive.

To fill the void left by the diverted soybean oil, the global market turns to the lowest-cost alternative: palm oil.³ Palm oil is the most productive oil crop per hectare, but it is grown primarily in the tropical regions of Indonesia and Malaysia.

6.2 The Chen-Sexton-Smith Findings (2025)

In a landmark paper titled "Using Vegetable Oils for Biofuel Accelerates Tropical Deforestation", researchers utilized high-resolution satellite imagery combined with econometric modeling to quantify this effect. Unlike previous "computational general equilibrium" (CGE) models which relied on theoretical assumptions, this study used empirical data to track price transmission and land conversion.⁹

• The Mechanism: The study showed that increased demand for biomass-based diesel drove up the global price of palm oil.

• The Result: This price signal incentivized the conversion of tropical forests into palm plantations. The researchers estimated that between 2002 and 2018, biofuel demand was responsible for the conversion of approximately 1.7 million hectares of forest to oil palm.²

• The Carbon Cost: This land-use change released over one gigaton of CO2. The carbon released from cutting down and burning the rainforest (and draining peatlands) dwarfs the emissions saved by replacing petroleum diesel. When these emissions are accounted for, the carbon intensity of vegetable oil-based biofuel is often higher than that of the fossil fuel it replaces.²

This finding challenges the fundamental validity of the RFS and LCFS treatment of crop-based biofuels. It suggests that policies designed to reduce emissions in Los Angeles are driving deforestation in Borneo.

7. The Supply Chain Crisis: Fraud and "Suspect" Oil

As regulators have become aware of the deforestation risks associated with virgin vegetable oils, they have skewed incentives toward waste feedstocks (UCO). However, this has birthed a massive illicit trade.

7.1 The Chinese UCO Influx

Starting in 2022, the U.S. and Europe saw a tidal wave of UCO imports from China. Volumes tripled in a single year, reaching levels that appeared physically impossible given the collection infrastructure in Asia.⁴⁴

7.2 The Chemistry of Fraud

The fraud is simple but difficult to detect. Virgin palm oil is chemically very similar to used cooking oil. Unscrupulous aggregators can mix cheap, virgin palm oil (which has high deforestation risks) with legitimate UCO. They then export this mix as "100% Waste UCO."

This fraud accomplishes two things:

1. Profit: It captures the high LCFS and RIN values reserved for waste products.

2. Laundering: It allows high-carbon palm oil to enter the U.S. fuel supply disguised as a low-carbon hero.⁸

European regulators have already begun cracking down, suspending certifications from major aggregators. The U.S. EPA faces a similar challenge: if the renewable diesel boom is powered by fraudulent palm oil, the entire carbon reduction claim is nullified.⁴⁷

8. Future Outlook: The Next Phase of the Boom

As we look toward 2026 and beyond, the renewable diesel industry stands at a crossroads. The initial "gold rush" phase of capacity expansion is over, and the market is entering a phase of consolidation and correction.

8.1 The "Bust" and Consolidation

The rapid overbuild of capacity has already led to casualties. In 2024 and 2025, several facilities, particularly smaller biodiesel plants, were forced to close due to crushed margins.⁴⁸ The industry is consolidating around major players like Phillips 66 and Diamond Green Diesel, who have the scale to manage feedstock volatility and the capital to install complex pre-treatment units.²⁶

8.2 The Rise of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

The next frontier is the sky. While the electrification of trucking is slowly advancing, aviation remains dependent on liquid fuels. The same hydroprocessing technology used for renewable diesel can be tweaked to produce SAF. With new mandates in the EU and incentives in the U.S., refiners are pivoting toward jet fuel.⁴⁹ This will likely renew the pressure on vegetable oil supplies, perpetuating the cycle of price volatility and environmental risk.

8.3 Conclusion

The story of vegetable oils for biofuel is a testament to the complexity of the bioeconomy. It highlights how well-intentioned policies—like the RFS and LCFS—can generate a cascade of unintended consequences that ripple through global markets. From the chemistry of the hydrotreater to the economics of the soybean crush, and from the feedlots of Iowa to the rainforests of Indonesia, the system is deeply interconnected.

The evidence suggests that the current reliance on crop-based vegetable oils is unsustainable. The "carbon leakage" identified by Chen, Sexton, and Smith indicates that we cannot farm our way to decarbonization using current feedstocks without causing collateral environmental damage. The future of the industry likely relies on breaking the link to arable land—moving toward true wastes, cover crops like camelina, or synthetic fuels—lest the solution to climate change becomes a driver of it.

9. Detailed Scientific Appendix

9.1 Comparative Carbon Intensity and ILUC Factors

The following table illustrates the disparity in Carbon Intensity (CI) scores assigned by California's LCFS, highlighting the massive economic incentive for waste feedstocks over crop oils, and the significant impact of the Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) penalty.

Feedstock Pathway	Direct Emissions (Processing/Transport) (gCO2​e/MJ)	ILUC Penalty (gCO2​e/MJ)	Total Carbon Intensity (gCO2​e/MJ)	Approx. LCFS Credit Value (Relative)
Used Cooking Oil (UCO)	~20.0	0.0	20.0	High
Tallow (Animal Fat)	~30.0	0.0	30.0	High
Corn Oil (Distillers)	~29.0	0.0	29.0	High
Soybean Oil	~25.0	~29.0	54.0	Low/Moderate
Canola Oil	~26.0	~25.0	51.0	Low/Moderate
Fossil Diesel (Baseline)	--	--	100.5	(Deficit Generator)

Data synthesized from CARB LCFS Pathway Reports and Certified CI Scores.³² Note how the ILUC penalty effectively doubles the carbon footprint of crop-based oils.

9.2 The "Green Premium" Calculation

The economic viability of renewable diesel production is dependent on the aggregate value of incentives exceeding the production cost. The production cost of Renewable Diesel (C_RD) is significantly higher than fossil diesel due to feedstock costs (soybean oil is roughly 3-4x more expensive than crude oil per pound) and hydrogen consumption.

The revenue equation for a producer can be expressed conceptually as:

Revenue = P_ULSD + RIN_D4 * 1.7 + LCFS_Credit + Tax_Credit

Where:

• P_ULSD: The wholesale price of Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel.

• RIN_D4: The price of a Biomass-Based Diesel RIN. The 1.7 multiplier reflects the higher energy density and equivalence value of renewable diesel compared to ethanol.

• LCFS_Credit: The value derived from the CI reduction (lower CI = higher value).

• Tax_Credit: The $1.00/gal BTC (historically) or the variable 45Z credit (future).

When feedstock prices spike (as seen with soybean oil in 2022), the C_RD rises. If credit prices (RIN or LCFS) simultaneously fall (as seen in 2024 due to oversupply), the margin collapses, leading to plant closures.⁴⁸

9.3 Hydrotreating Catalyst Selectivity

The choice of catalyst in the hydrotreating unit is a critical variable for refiners balancing yield vs. hydrogen costs.

• NiMo (Nickel-Molybdenum): typically favors the Hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) pathway. It is highly active for hydrogenation and requires high hydrogen partial pressure. It maximizes liquid yield (conservation of carbon) but has high operational costs due to hydrogen consumption.

• CoMo (Cobalt-Molybdenum) or Noble Metals (Pd/Pt): Can be tuned to favor Decarboxylation/Decarbonylation (DCO). These pathways reduce hydrogen consumption but result in "shrinkage"—a loss of volume because carbon is lost as CO2 or CO.

Refiners will switch strategies based on the price of hydrogen (often linked to natural gas prices) and the value of the final fuel volume. In a high-margin environment, maximizing volume via HDO is preferred. In a cost-constrained environment, DCO may be utilized.¹⁶

Works cited

1. FAME vs HVO: Differences and Engine Compatibility - Zeppelin Power, accessed January 16, 2026, https://zeppelinpower.com/en-nl/articles/the-major-differences-between-fame-and-hvo

2. Research - Aaron Smith, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.aaronsmithagecon.com/research

3. U.S. Renewable Diesel Production Growth Drastically Impacts Global Feedstock Trade, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/us-renewable-diesel-production-growth-drastically-impacts-global-feedstock-trade

4. Proposed Biofuel Blending Obligation Presents an Opportunity for U.S. Soy, accessed January 16, 2026, https://soygrowers.com/news-releases/proposed-biofuel-blending-obligation-presents-an-opportunity-for-u-s-soy/

5. Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel: What's the Difference? - farmdoc daily, accessed January 16, 2026, https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2023/02/biodiesel-and-renewable-diesel-whats-the-difference.html

6. Renewable Fuels at San Francisco Refinery - Phillips 66, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.phillips66.com/refining/san-francisco-refinery/

7. Soybean Oil's Rising Value Reshapes U.S. Crush Margins Under the Renewable Diesel Surge - Agrolatam, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.agrolatam.com/news/soybean-oil-value-crush-margins-renewable-diesel-boom/

8. EPA Investigates Claims of UCO Fraud in US Biodiesel Supply Chain - ResourceWise, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.resourcewise.com/blog/environmental-blog/epa-investigates-claims-of-uco-fraud-in-us-biodiesel-supply-chain

9. Using Vegetable Oils for Biofuel Accelerates Tropical Deforestation and Increases Carbon Emissions - BibBase, accessed January 16, 2026, https://bibbase.org/network/publication/chen-sexton-smith-usingvegetableoilsforbiofuelacceleratestropicaldeforestationandincreasescarbonemissions-2025

10. New Study Finds California's Indirect Land Use Change Score for Ethanol Is Obsolete, accessed January 16, 2026, https://advancedbiofuelsusa.info/new-study-finds-california-s-indirect-land-use-change-score-for-ethanol-is-obsolete

11. What is the difference between renewable diesel and traditional biodiesel - if any? - Neste, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.neste.com/news/what-is-the-difference-between-renewable-diesel-and-traditional-biodiesel-if-any

12. What to Know About Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel | Baker Institute, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/what-know-about-renewable-diesel-and-biodiesel

13. The hydrotreating solution for the challenges of renewable feeds - Sulzer, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.sulzer.com/-/media/images/products/gtc/hydrotreating_whitepaper.pdf

14. HVO vs Biodiesel – Find the right biofuel for your business | Nationwide Fuels, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.nationwidefuels.co.uk/oil-guides/hvo-vs-biodiesel/

15. Hydrotreated vegetable oil - Wikipedia, accessed January 16, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrotreated_vegetable_oil

16. Hydrotreatment of Vegetable Oils to Produce Bio-Hydrogenated Diesel and Liquefied Petroleum Gas Fuel over Catalysts Containing Sulfided Ni–Mo and Solid Acids - ACS Publications, accessed January 16, 2026, https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/ef200889e

17. Green Diesel Production by Catalytic Hydrodeoxygenation of Vegetables Oils - PMC - NIH, accessed January 16, 2026, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8700882/

18. Selectivity of reaction pathways for green diesel production towards biojet fuel applications, accessed January 16, 2026, https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2023/ra/d3ra02281a

19. Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil as a Fuel from Waste Materials - MDPI, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4344/9/4/337

20. Green Diesel Production Via Catalytic Hydrogenation/decarboxylation Of Triglycerides And Fatty Acids Of Vegetable Oil And Brown Grease - Digital Commons @ Wayne State, accessed January 16, 2026, https://digitalcommons.wayne.edu/oa_dissertations/794/

21. Renewable Diesel is Different From Petroleum Diesel - Renewable Energy Group, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.regi.com/resources/insights/understanding-renewable-diesel

22. What's That – Isomerization - Mansfield Service Partners (MSP), accessed January 16, 2026, https://msp.energy/whats-that-isomerization/

23. How Is Renewable Diesel Made | The Production Process - Foster Fuels, accessed January 16, 2026, https://fosterfuels.com/blog/renewable-diesel-production-process-an-overview/

24. Renewable Diesel and SAF Science & Process - Valero, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.valero.com/renewables/renewable-diesel/renewable-diesel-science-process

25. Renewable Diesel Fuel Prepared by the Isomerization and Hydrogenation of Biosynthetic Farnesene | Energy & Fuels - ACS Publications, accessed January 16, 2026, https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.4c05237

26. Phillips 66 completes Rodeo renewables conversion | Latest Market News - Argus Media, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2581689-phillips-66-completes-rodeo-renewables-conversion

27. U.S. biofuels production capacity growth slowed in 2024 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66484

28. U.S. renewable diesel capacity could increase due to announced and developing projects - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48916

29. Estimated attribution of the RFS Program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the Bioenergy Scenario Model - PMC - PubMed Central, accessed January 16, 2026, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11864321/

30. Proposed Amendments to Low Carbon Fuel Standard - California Air Resources Board, accessed January 16, 2026, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/barcu/board/books/2024/11070824/24-6-2pres.pdf

31. LCA Report - California Air Resources Board, accessed January 16, 2026, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/classic/fuels/lcfs/fuelpathways/comments/tier2/b0492_report.pdf

32. Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Programs - Targray, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.targray.com/biofuels/lcfs

33. carb lcfs fuel pathway report renewable diesel - California Air Resources Board, accessed January 16, 2026, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/classic/fuels/lcfs/fuelpathways/comments/tier2/b0747_report.pdf

34. Secondary Impacts from Rising Used Cooking Oil Demand on Crop-Oil Prices, accessed January 16, 2026, https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/12/secondary-impacts-from-rising-used-cooking-oil-demand-on-crop-oil-prices.html

35. Biofuel Limbo: Why 45Z Tax Credit Uncertainty is Paralyzing US Soybean Oil Markets in 2026, accessed January 16, 2026, https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2026-1-16-biofuel-limbo-why-45z-tax-credit-uncertainty-is-paralyzing-us-soybean-oil-markets-in-2026

36. US soybean oil prices stall amid biofuel policy, 45Z uncertainty: 2026 preview, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/us-soybean-oil-prices-stall-amid-biofuel-policy-45z-uncertainty-2026-preview/

37. The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 1: the Long-Run Evolution of Oilseed Crushing - farmdoc daily, accessed January 16, 2026, https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/08/the-soybean-industry-response-to-the-renewable-diesel-boom-part-1-the-long-run-evolution-of-oilseed-crushing.html

38. Demand for domestic vegetable oils boosted by rising biofuels production, accessed January 16, 2026, https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=108363

39. Understanding the 45Z tax credit and RFS changes: US biomass-based diesel and SAF at a crossroads - Fastmarkets, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/us-biomass-based-diesel-and-saf-at-a-crossroads-understanding-the-45z-tax-credit-and-its-ripple-effects/

40. California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) Monthly Newsletter November 2019 - Stillwater Publications, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.stillwaterpublications.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Stillwater_LCFS_Mly_1911-afho813.pdf

41. Biodiesel helps to lower feed costs, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.iowabiodiesel.org/moduledocuments/embed/7/Livestock_Impacts_0BCAD5F0E98F5_AFCC298151D23.pdf

42. The Soybean Industry Response to the Renewable Diesel Boom, Part 3: the Value of Soybean Oil in the Soybean Crush - farmdoc daily - University of Illinois, accessed January 16, 2026, https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-soybean-industry-response-to-the-renewable-diesel-boom-part-3-the-value-of-soybean-oil-in-the-soybean-crush.html

43. Soybean meal demand grows with crush capacity - CHS Inc., accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.chsinc.com/news-and-stories/2025/02/25/soybean-meal-deal

44. Global Supply and Trade of Used Cooking Oil - Clean Fuels Alliance America, accessed January 16, 2026, https://cleanfuels.org/wp-content/uploads/GlobalData_UCO-Supply-Outlook_Sep2023.pdf

45. Used Cooking Oil Imports for Biofuels Exceed Expectations - American Soybean Association, accessed January 16, 2026, https://soygrowers.com/news-releases/used-cooking-oil-imports-for-biofuels-exceed-expectations/

46. EU Scrutinizes Fraud in Certification of Biofuels - The Maritime Executive, accessed January 16, 2026, https://maritime-executive.com/article/eu-scrutinizes-fraud-in-certification-of-biofuels

47. Used Cooking Oil: The Certified Unknown | T&E - Transport & Environment, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/uco

48. U.S. Biofuel: Boom to Bust? - Turner, Mason & Company, accessed January 16, 2026, https://www.turnermason.com/blog/u-s-biofuel-boom-to-bust/

49. Estimates of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production Capacity at U.S. Renewable Diesel Plants Through 2026 - farmdoc daily, accessed January 16, 2026, https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/01/estimates-of-sustainable-aviation-fuel-production-capacity-at-u-s-renewable-diesel-plants-through-2026.html

50. carb lcfs fuel pathway report crimson renewable energy llc biodiesel - California Air Resources Board, accessed January 16, 2026, https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/classic/fuels/lcfs/fuelpathways/comments/tier2/b0629_report.pdf