Sentinels of Planetary Health: The Copernicus Expansion
- Bryan White
- 7 days ago
- 19 min read

1. Introduction: The View from the Anthropocene
As the first month of 2026 draws to a close, the global scientific community finds itself at a defining inflection point in the history of environmental monitoring. The week of January 15, 2026, will likely be recorded in the annals of space history not merely for a specific launch or a singular discovery, but for the convergence of political will, technological maturation, and urgent ecological necessity.1 The European Union’s Copernicus programme, long regarded as the most ambitious Earth Observation (EO) initiative in history, has formally transitioned into its next operational epoch. With the European Space Agency (ESA) securing definitive funding for the "Expansion Missions"—a suite of six next-generation satellite constellations—humanity is moving from an era of estimated environmental impacts to one of precise, incontrovertible measurement.3
This transition comes at a time of profound paradox. On one hand, the data streaming from the existing Sentinel fleet has never been more granular or accessible. The successful reintegration of the United Kingdom into the Copernicus programme in 2024 has stabilized the financial and industrial architecture of the European space sector, allowing for the full realization of missions that were previously at risk of de-scoping.3 This geopolitical realignment was celebrated at the International Green Week in Berlin in mid-January 2026, where the synthesis of policy and pixel was on full display.6
On the other hand, the physical systems of the planet are displaying alarming volatility. Reports from January 2026 indicate that the "last stable glaciers" are collapsing faster than models predicted, and new islands are emerging in the Arctic as ice shelves disintegrate.7 Simultaneously, operational challenges persist; a significant anomaly on January 14, 2026, involving the European Data Relay System (EDRS-A), caused a temporary but critical loss of data from the Sentinel-1 radar satellites, a stark reminder of the fragility of our digital nervous system.9
This report offers a comprehensive, deep-dive analysis of the state of Earth Observation in early 2026. It explores the triad of planetary health—Atmosphere, Cryosphere, and Biosphere—through the lens of the Copernicus Sentinels. We will examine the physics of the sensors that allow us to see the invisible, the discrepancies they have uncovered in global emissions reporting, and the technological leaps promised by the upcoming Expansion Missions: CO2M, CRISTAL, CIMR, LSTM, CHIME, and ROSE-L. We move beyond high-level summaries to explore the spectroscopic and interferometric principles that convert raw voltage into climate intelligence.
2. The Atmospheric Composition: Auditing the Invisible
The "Global Stocktake," a mechanism mandated by the Paris Agreement to assess collective progress on climate goals, has evolved from a diplomatic accounting exercise into a rigorous scientific audit. This evolution is driven primarily by the "top-down" data provided by atmospheric sounding satellites. By January 2026, the combined capabilities of the veteran Sentinel-5P satellite and the newly launched Sentinel-5A (which debuted in August 2025) have fundamentally altered our understanding of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.10
2.1 The Methane Discrepancy: Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up
For decades, the standard for reporting national emissions has been the "bottom-up" inventory. In this method, nations estimate their total emissions by multiplying activity data (e.g., the number of cows, the miles of pipeline, the tons of coal burned) by an "emission factor"—a coefficient representing the average emissions per unit of activity. While administratively convenient, recent findings from 2026 suggest this method is dangerously flawed.
A landmark study published in early 2026, reviewing data from 1990 through 2024, has highlighted a widening chasm between these inventories and atmospheric reality. Focusing on Annex I countries of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the study found that while official reports claim a decline in methane emissions—particularly from the Energy and Waste sectors due to stricter regulations—the satellite data disagrees. Measurements from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on Sentinel-5P indicate a persistent increasing trend in atmospheric methane concentrations over these very regions.11
2.1.1 The Physics of Fugitive Emissions
The discrepancy arises because bottom-up inventories assume systems work as designed. They do not account for the "heavy tail" of the distribution—the rare, massive leaks (super-emitters) or the chronic, diffuse leaks from aging infrastructure that characterize real-world operations.
For example, studies utilizing Sentinel-5P data over the Permian Basin in the US and dairy farming regions in Canada have shown that "emission factors" derived decades ago often fail to represent current industrial realities.12 In the Canadian dairy sector, a satellite-based fingerprinting analysis revealed that while the methane "anomaly" (the concentration above background) over dairy zones is narrowing, the background emissions from non-dairy landscapes (wetlands, thawing permafrost) are rising, complicating the attribution.12
The satellite does not care about economic assumptions; it measures the total number of molecules in the optical path. TROPOMI acts as a global accountant that cannot be bribed.
2.2 The Sentinel-5P TROPOMI Instrument: Detecting the Fingerprint
To understand how a satellite orbiting at 824 kilometers can count methane molecules, we must look at the principles of Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS).
2.2.1 Vibrational Spectroscopy
Molecules are not static; they vibrate. The bonds between the Carbon and Hydrogen atoms in methane act like springs. When sunlight passes through the atmosphere and hits these molecules, the energy of specific photons is absorbed, causing the molecular bonds to vibrate at higher energy states. This absorption happens at very specific wavelengths—the molecule's "spectral fingerprint."
TROPOMI measures the sunlight reflected from the Earth's surface and scattered back into space. By dispersing this light into a spectrum (like a prism), the instrument detects the missing slices of light—the absorption lines.
The SWIR Band: Methane has a strong absorption feature in the Shortwave Infrared (SWIR) at roughly 2.3 microns (2300 nanometers) and another in the Near Infrared. TROPOMI utilizes the SWIR band because it is highly sensitive to the total column of gas.14
The Challenge of Water: The Earth's atmosphere is full of water vapor, which also absorbs heavily in the infrared. TROPOMI must have a high enough spectral resolution (the ability to distinguish very close wavelengths) to see "between" the water lines to find the methane signature.10
2.2.2 The "Tip-and-Cue" Operational Model
One of the most significant operational developments of the 2025-2026 period is the maturation of the "tip-and-cue" system. Sentinel-5P provides the "tip." With its massive swath width of 2,600 km, it images the entire planet every day, but with a spatial resolution of about 5.5 x 3.5 km.16 This is coarse; a single pixel might cover a large city or a cluster of oil wells.
When TROPOMI detects a plume, it alerts high-resolution commercial or institutional satellites (the "cue") to target that specific coordinate. This was dramatically illustrated in January 2026, when Sentinel-5P detected a methane anomaly over the trans-Saharan pipeline network in Algeria. While previous sensors might have missed this low-emission rate plume, the system flagged it, and high-resolution follow-up (using satellites like GHGSat or the future CO2M) pinpointed the exact valve station responsible.17 This validation capability is crucial for the EU’s Methane Alert and Response System (MARS), unveiled at COP27 and fully operational by 2026.18
2.3 The Future: CO2M and the Anthropogenic Carbon Mission
While methane is a potent short-term forcer, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the long-term driver of climate change. The Copernicus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Monitoring (CO2M) mission is the flagship of the new Expansion fleet, designed to solve the hardest problem in atmospheric physics: distinguishing human-made CO2 from the massive natural background.19
2.3.1 The 400 PPM Problem
The atmosphere currently contains over 420 parts per million (ppm) of CO2. A large power plant might only increase the concentration in the air column directly above it by 1 or 2 ppm. Detecting this tiny signal against the noisy background of natural respiration (plants breathing) requires instrument precision of less than 0.7 ppm.19
CO2M achieves this through a specific choice of spectral bands:
1.6 Microns (Weak CO2 Band): This band is the workhorse. It allows light to penetrate deep into the atmosphere to the surface, ensuring the sensor sees the CO2 near the ground (where the emissions are) rather than just in the upper atmosphere. Crucially, this band has very little interference from water vapor compared to other infrared regions.20
2.0 Microns (Strong CO2 Band): Used for validation and cloud screening.
0.76 Microns (Oxygen A-Band): By measuring oxygen absorption, which is constant and known, scientists can calculate the air pressure and the total path length of the light. This allows them to normalize the CO2 measurement (calculating the "dry air mole fraction").22
2.3.2 The Aerosol Correction: Enter the Polarimeter
The biggest enemy of CO2 retrieval is not instrument noise, but aerosols—tiny floating particles of dust, smoke, or pollution. Aerosols scatter light. If a photon bounces off a dust particle and returns to the satellite without hitting the ground, the path length is shortened. The satellite "thinks" there is less CO2 than there actually is. Conversely, multiple scattering can lengthen the path.
To correct for this, CO2M carries a Multi-Angle Polarimeter (MAP).
The Physics of Polarization: Sunlight is unpolarized. When it reflects off a surface or a particle, it becomes polarized. The degree and direction of polarization depend heavily on the angle of reflection and the physical properties of the particle (size, shape, refractive index).
The Solution: By looking at the same patch of air from up to 40 different angles as the satellite flies over, and measuring the polarization at each angle, the MAP can mathematically reconstruct the 3D structure of the aerosol layer. This allows the data processing algorithms to "subtract" the aerosol effect from the spectrometer data, salvaging CO2 measurements that would otherwise be discarded as corrupted.23
3. The Cryosphere: Radar Eyes on the Great Thaw
If the atmosphere is the planet's volatile skin, the cryosphere—the frozen water at the poles—is its slowing beating heart. By 2026, the data indicates that this heart is fibrillating. The Copernicus programme utilizes a "system of systems" approach to monitor the poles, overcoming the challenges of perpetual darkness and cloud cover through the use of microwave radar.25
3.1 Sentinel-1: The Chronologist of Collapse
Sentinel-1, a radar imaging mission, has been the backbone of polar research for over a decade. Unlike optical cameras (Sentinel-2), radar provides its own illumination and operates at a wavelength (C-band, ~5.6 cm) that passes unhindered through clouds and fog.
3.1.1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR)
Sentinel-1 uses a technique called Interferometry. By taking two images of the same glacier from slightly different positions (or at different times), scientists can measure the phase difference of the returning radar waves.
Phase Shift: A shift in the wave's phase corresponds to a change in distance. Because the radar wavelength is so known and stable, these phase shifts can measure ground movement with millimeter-scale precision.
Ice Velocity: By tracking "speckles" (unique radar patterns in the ice surface) over time, Sentinel-1 has built a continuous record of ice velocity.
3.1.2 The 2026 Findings: Pulse Dynamics
The decade-long record (2014-2024/26) analyzed in early 2026 has revealed that ice sheets move in dynamic pulses rather than a steady flow. In Antarctica, glaciers like Pine Island and Thwaites are shown to accelerate in response to ocean forcing. The data reveals that the "grounding lines"—the critical boundary where ice leaves the bedrock and begins to float—are retreating rapidly. Sentinel-1 has clocked ice velocities exceeding 50 feet (15 meters) per day in the most unstable zones.27
In January 2026, the fragility of this monitoring system was highlighted when the EDRS-A satellite—a laser relay node that beams data from Sentinel-1 to Europe—suffered an anomaly, causing a blackout of radar data on January 14. This event underscored the need for the redundancy planned in the Expansion missions.9
3.2 CRISTAL: Solving the Snow Depth Conundrum
While Sentinel-1 measures how fast ice moves, we also need to know its volume—its thickness. This is the domain of altimetry. The current CryoSat-2 mission has been invaluable, but it suffers from a fundamental ambiguity: snow.
3.2.1 The Physics of Radar Penetration
Sea ice is covered in snow. When a radar pulse hits the ice floe, where does it reflect from?
Ku-Band (13.5 GHz): Used by CryoSat-2. It tends to penetrate the dry, cold snow and reflect off the snow-ice interface.
The Error: If the snow becomes wet or has icy layers (due to climate warming), the radar reflects from somewhere inside the snowpack. If scientists assume the reflection is from the ice surface, but it's actually from the snow layers, they overestimate the ice "freeboard" (height above water) and thus overestimate the ice thickness.
3.2.2 The Dual-Frequency Solution
The Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Topography Altimeter (CRISTAL), slated for launch in late 2027, solves this by carrying a dual-frequency radar (Ku-band and Ka-band).
Ka-Band (35.75 GHz): This higher frequency has a shorter wavelength (~8 mm). It scatters much more strongly off the snow grains. Therefore, the Ka-band pulse reflects primarily from the air-snow interface (the top of the snow).29
The Calculation: By subtracting the range measured by the Ku-band (bottom of snow) from the range measured by the Ka-band (top of snow), CRISTAL measures the snow depth directly.
This differential measurement is a game-changer. It is estimated that lack of knowledge about snow depth contributes up to 50% of the uncertainty in sea ice volume estimates. CRISTAL will virtually eliminate this error source, providing the first accurate inventory of Arctic ice volume.31
3.3 CIMR: The Microwave Thermometer
While CRISTAL measures height, the Copernicus Imaging Microwave Radiometer (CIMR) measures temperature—specifically, "brightness temperature."
3.3.1 Passive Microwave Physics
All objects emit thermal radiation. In the microwave portion of the spectrum, the amount of radiation emitted depends on the object's physical temperature and its emissivity.
Emissivity Contrast: Open ocean water has a very low emissivity (it looks "cold" to a microwave radiometer). Sea ice has a high emissivity (it looks "warm"). This stark contrast allows satellites to map sea ice concentration even through clouds and in total darkness.33
3.3.2 The Multi-Frequency Approach
CIMR is a massive rotating radiometer that scans a swath of 1900 km. It observes in multiple frequencies to extract different variables:
L-Band (1.4 GHz): This low frequency penetrates the atmosphere and is sensitive to Sea Surface Salinity and the thickness of thin ice (up to 50 cm).
C-Band & X-Band (6.9 & 10.65 GHz): The standard channels for sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature.
Ka-Band (36 GHz): Provides high spatial resolution (5 km) for resolving the ice edge and leads (cracks) in the ice.34
By combining CIMR's wide-area concentration maps with CRISTAL's thick-ice profiles, Copernicus will generate a "Digital Twin" of the polar oceans, vital for both climate modeling and the safety of maritime operations in an increasingly navigable Arctic.
4. The Terrestrial Biosphere: Agriculture in the Age of Volatility
The third pillar of the Copernicus strategy focuses on the land—specifically, the soil and vegetation that feed the global population of 8 billion. As climate volatility increases, the mandate for European agriculture has shifted from simple production to "sustainable intensification." The Copernicus Sentinel fleet is the primary verification tool for this transition.
4.1 Sentinel-2: The Eyes of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)
By 2026, Sentinel-2 has fully integrated into the bureaucratic machinery of the European Union. The "Area Monitoring System" now uses the satellite's multispectral data to automatically verify compliance with CAP subsidies. Instead of sending inspectors to check if a farmer has planted a cover crop or maintained fallow land, algorithms analyze the Sentinel-2 time series.6
4.1.1 Case Study: Coffee Mapping in Yunnan
The utility of Sentinel-2 extends far beyond Europe. In January 2026, a groundbreaking study from China demonstrated the power of machine learning applied to Sentinel-2 data. Researchers in Yunnan province used the satellite to map coffee plantations—a notoriously difficult crop to monitor because it is often intercropped with shade trees or grown in fragmented, mountainous terrain.
Phenological Profiling: The AI did not just look at a single image. It analyzed the "phenology"—the seasonal cycle of greening and senescence—captured by Sentinel-2's 5-day revisit time. Coffee has a distinct growth signature compared to the surrounding forest. The study achieved 95% accuracy, identifying 53,000 hectares of coffee, significantly revising local government estimates.36
4.2 CHIME: The Hyperspectral Revolution
While Sentinel-2 is a powerful tool, it is "multispectral," meaning it views the world in roughly 13 broad color bands. It can tell you a plant is green, but not necessarily why it is green, or if it is a specific shade of yellow indicative of disease.
The Copernicus Hyperspectral Imaging Mission for the Environment (CHIME) changes this paradigm. It is an imaging spectrometer that splits light into over 200 narrow, contiguous bands across the visible and shortwave infrared spectrum (400-2500 nm).37
4.2.1 The Physics of Plant Stress
When a plant is stressed, its biochemistry changes before its visible appearance does.
Chlorophyll & Carotenoids: Changes in pigment ratios affect absorption in the visible range (400-700 nm).
Cell Structure: Collapse of cell walls due to dehydration affects reflectance in the Near Infrared (700-1300 nm).
Water & Lignin: The Shortwave Infrared (1400-2500 nm) contains specific absorption features related to water content, cellulose, and lignin.
CHIME's 10-nanometer spectral resolution allows it to resolve the specific shape of these absorption features. For example, the "Red Edge"—the steep rise in reflectance between red and NIR—shifts slightly in wavelength depending on the chlorophyll content. Sentinel-2 measures the Red Edge with two or three bands; CHIME measures it with ten, allowing for a precise derivative analysis that can detect nutrient deficiency (e.g., Nitrogen stress) weeks before the human eye can see yellowing leaves.38
4.3 LSTM: Managing the Water Crisis
Water scarcity is the defining challenge for 21st-century agriculture. To manage water, one must measure Evapotranspiration (ET)—the "sweating" of the Earth. The Land Surface Temperature Monitoring (LSTM) mission is designed to do exactly this.
4.3.1 Thermal Physics and Stomatal Conductance
LSTM is a thermal camera. It operates in the Thermal Infrared (TIR) range (8-12 microns). It measures the kinetic temperature of the land surface.
The Cooling Effect: When a plant transpires, water evaporates from its stomata (pores). This phase change from liquid to vapor consumes energy (latent heat), cooling the leaf. A healthy, transpiring plant is significantly cooler than the surrounding air.
The Stress Signal: If a plant lacks water, it closes its stomata to prevent desiccation. Transpiration stops, and the evaporative cooling ceases. The leaf temperature spikes.
LSTM can detect this temperature rise. By combining the Land Surface Temperature (LST) with air temperature and solar radiation data, scientists calculate the ET rate.
Resolution Matters: Previous thermal satellites (like Sentinel-3) had kilometer-scale resolution. LSTM provides thermal data at 50 meters. This 400-fold improvement in resolution allows for water management at the scale of individual fields. A farmer can see exactly which corner of a field is water-stressed and adjust irrigation accordingly, a practice known as Variable Rate Irrigation.40
4.4 WorldCereal: The Global Inventory
Complementing these sensors is the WorldCereal system, an ESA-funded project that reached a major milestone in 2026. WorldCereal is an open-source, cloud-based system that generates seasonally updated global crop maps.
Dynamic Mapping: unlike static maps of the past, WorldCereal updates its crop masks every growing season. It distinguishes between "temporary crops" (wheat, maize) and permanent ones, and crucially, identifies irrigated vs. rainfed land.42
Architecture: The system relies on the massive processing power of the cloud, ingesting the petabytes of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data to train localized machine learning models. In 2026, the release of the updated global cropland map provided the FAO and World Food Programme with the critical baseline data needed to forecast food shortages in regions destabilized by climate shocks.43
5. Technological Infrastructure: The Backbone of the System
The success of these missions relies on a sophisticated, often invisible, infrastructure of ground segments and calibration systems.
5.1 The UK and the TRUTHS Mission
The United Kingdom's return to the Copernicus fold has had tangible impacts on this infrastructure. Beyond funding the Expansion missions, the UK plays a leading role in the TRUTHS (Traceable Radiometry Underpinning Terrestrial- and Helio-Studies) mission. TRUTHS is essentially a "standards laboratory in space." It will calibrate the other satellites (like Sentinel-2 and CHIME) by measuring incoming solar radiation and reflected Earth radiance with unprecedented accuracy. This cross-calibration ensures that a measurement taken in 2026 is comparable to one taken in 2036, a prerequisite for detecting subtle climate trends.3
5.2 The Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem
Managing the deluge of data—Sentinel-1 alone generates terabytes per day—requires a shift from "downloading" to "cloud-native" processing. The Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem, fully operational by 2026, allows users to run algorithms next to the data. This architecture was pivotal for the WorldCereal project, enabling the processing of global time-series data that would be impossible to download to a local server.45
6. Policy Implications and Future Outlook
The technical achievements of the Copernicus Expansion missions are ultimately tools for policy. The data they provide feeds directly into the European Green Deal and the global Paris Agreement framework.
6.1 The End of Plausible Deniability
The most profound impact of the 2026 Sentinel ecosystem is the erosion of plausible deniability. When Sentinel-5P and CO2M can pinpoint a methane leak to a specific pipeline valve in Algeria or a fracking pad in the Permian Basin, the diplomatic conversation changes. Emissions are no longer estimates to be negotiated; they are facts to be addressed. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which taxes imports based on their carbon intensity, will likely rely on this satellite data to verify the emissions claims of trading partners.
6.2 Food Security as National Security
Similarly, the combination of WorldCereal, Sentinel-2, and LSTM transforms food security analysis. In an era where bread prices can topple governments, the ability to forecast crop yields months in advance using satellite data is a strategic asset. The 2026 reports on crop health allow for the pre-positioning of food aid and the stabilization of commodity markets before shortages become acute.47
7. Conclusion
As we look out from the vantage point of early 2026, the Earth appears more fragile than ever, yet our understanding of it has never been more robust. The Copernicus programme, bolstered by the expansion of its fleet and the reunification of its political backers, has constructed a digital mirror of the planet.
This mirror reveals uncomfortable truths: that our ice is melting in pulses we are only beginning to understand, that our methane emissions are higher than we admit, and that our crops are thirstier than we can sustain. However, it also provides the tools for remediation. From the dual-frequency radar pulses of CRISTAL measuring snow depth to the thermal sensors of LSTM measuring plant sweat, the physics of remote sensing is being harnessed to guide humanity through the bottleneck of the Anthropocene.
The launch of the Expansion Missions later this decade will not merely add more data points; it will complete the picture. We are moving from a low-resolution sketch of our planet to a high-definition, hyperspectral, real-time video. The challenge for the remainder of the 2020s is no longer just observing the Earth, but acting on what we see.
Table 1: The Copernicus Sentinel Expansion Missions (High-Priority Candidates)
Mission Acronym | Full Name | Primary Objective | Key Instrument Physics |
CO2M | Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring | Quantify human-made CO2 emissions | Spectroscopy: SWIR absorption at 1.6 & 2.0 m. Polarimetry: Multi-angle aerosol correction. |
CRISTAL | Polar Ice & Snow Topography | Measure Sea Ice Thickness & Snow Depth | Dual-Freq Radar: Ku-band (snow/ice interface) & Ka-band (air/snow interface) differential ranging. |
CIMR | Imaging Microwave Radiometer | Monitor Sea Ice Concentration & SST | Passive Microwave: Multi-frequency (L, C, X, Ku, Ka) brightness temperature & emissivity contrast. |
LSTM | Land Surface Temperature Monitoring | Measure Evapotranspiration & Water Stress | Thermal Imaging: TIR bands (8-12 m) measuring kinetic temperature via Planck's Law. |
CHIME | Hyperspectral Imaging Mission | Soil health, Crop nutrition, Minerals | Hyperspectral: >200 contiguous bands (400-2500 nm) for resolving biochemical absorption features. |
ROSE-L | Radar Observing System for Europe | Soil moisture, Vegetation type, Ice | L-Band SAR: Long wavelength (~23 cm) penetrates vegetation canopies to see ground structure. |
Table 2: Key Findings & Events (January 2026 Context)
Domain | Event / Finding | Sensor / Source | Implication |
Atmosphere | Major discrepancy found between bottom-up inventories and satellite data for Annex I countries (1990-2024). | Sentinel-5P (TROPOMI) | National inventories likely underestimate emissions; "Top-down" auditing is essential. |
Atmosphere | Detection of low-rate methane plume from pipeline network in Algeria. | Sentinel-5P + Commercial Follow-up | Validation of "Tip-and-Cue" system for finding chronic leaks, not just super-emitters. |
Cryosphere | Anomaly on EDRS-A satellite causes loss of Sentinel-1 radar data on Jan 14, 2026. | Ground Segment / EDRS | Highlights fragility of data relay systems; need for redundancy. |
Cryosphere | Long-term record (2014-2024) reveals "pulse" dynamics of Antarctic glacier flow. | Sentinel-1 (InSAR) | Ice sheet collapse is non-linear; operational monitoring of velocity is critical. |
Agriculture | Mapping of 53,000 hectares of coffee in Yunnan, China with 95% accuracy. | Sentinel-2 + AI | Machine learning can extract complex phenological signals from multispectral time-series. |
Policy | UK formally reintegrated into Copernicus; Expansion Mission funding secured. | ESA / UK Gov | Financial stability for high-cost missions like CRISTAL and CO2M; UK industry access restored. |
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