Who Owns the Night? Satellite Constellations and the Battle for the Orbital Commons

I. Introduction: The Changing Texture of the Night Amidst the Onset of Satellite Constellations

For the vast majority of human history, the night sky was viewed as a static, immutable canopy. It was a realm of permanence that served as a navigational aid for mariners, a calendar for agricultural societies, and a canvas for our earliest mythologies. While the occasional comet or meteor provided a fleeting spectacle, the stars themselves were fixed points of reference. In the mid-20th century, the Space Age introduced artificial satellites, but for decades, these were relatively rare, singular points of light moving steadily across the firmament, visible only to the keenest observers.

However, the third decade of the 21st century has ushered in a radical transformation of the near-Earth environment. We are currently witnessing the industrialization of Low Earth Orbit (LEO), a region of space extending from approximately 160 kilometers to 2,000 kilometers above the planetary surface. This region, once sparsely populated by scientific missions and the International Space Station, is now being colonized by "megaconstellations"—vast fleets of networked satellites designed to provide high-speed, low-latency broadband internet to every square meter of the Earth.

The scale of this endeavor is difficult to overstate. As of early 2026, the number of active satellites in orbit has surpassed 11,000, a figure that dwarfs the total number of objects launched in the preceding six decades of spaceflight.¹ Proposals filed with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) suggest that this number could swell to hundreds of thousands in the coming decade, with nations and corporations racing to stake claims in the orbital commons.²

This report aims to provide an exhaustive, multi-dimensional analysis of this paradigm shift. It is written for the student of science and policy who seeks to understand not just the engineering marvels of these systems, but the complex interplay between technological progress and environmental stewardship. We will explore the genesis of the megaconstellation concept, tracing its roots from the failures of the 1990s to the successes of the 2020s. We will examine the profound socioeconomic benefits these systems offer, particularly in bridging the digital divide and providing resilience in the face of climate-induced disasters.

Conversely, we must confront the significant risks that accompany this rapid expansion. The narrative will delve into the growing threat of orbital congestion and the potential for a catastrophic "Kessler Syndrome" cascade. We will analyze the existential crisis facing ground-based astronomy, both optical and radio, as the sky fills with bright, noise-emitting objects. Finally, we will investigate the emerging and under-regulated threat of atmospheric pollution caused by the burning of satellite materials during reentry, a process that may imperil the ozone layer and alter the Earth's radiative balance.

This is not merely a story of hardware and orbits; it is a case study in the management of a global commons. It raises fundamental questions about who owns the sky, who benefits from its exploitation, and who bears the cost of its degradation.

II. The Genesis of the Megaconstellation

To fully appreciate the current revolution, one must understand the historical context and the technological bottlenecks that previously prevented the realization of LEO internet. The dream of a global "internet in the sky" is not new; it is a resurrected vision that failed spectacularly a generation ago.

The Crux of Geostationary Orbit

For most of the satellite era, commercial communications were dominated by spacecraft in Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO). Located at an altitude of 35,786 kilometers directly above the equator, a satellite in this orbit moves at a speed that matches the rotation of the Earth. To an observer on the ground, the satellite appears to hang motionless in the sky. This was a critical feature for early satellite TV and communications, as it allowed ground antennas to be fixed in place—simple, parabolic dishes pointed at a specific spot in the southern sky.⁴

However, the physics of GEO imposes severe limitations on internet connectivity. The most significant is latency—the time it takes for a signal to travel from the user to the satellite and back. Light travels at approximately 300,000 kilometers per second. A round trip to GEO involves a distance of over 70,000 kilometers, resulting in a minimum physical lag of about 240 milliseconds. When adding the time required for signal processing and routing through ground stations, the effective latency often exceeds 600 milliseconds.⁵

While this delay is imperceptible for television broadcasting, it renders modern interactive internet applications sluggish. Voice over IP (VoIP) calls suffer from annoying delays, online gaming becomes impossible, and secure financial trading algorithms—which rely on millisecond advantages—cannot function. Furthermore, the immense distance requires high-power transmissions, necessitating large, heavy satellites that are expensive to build and launch. The "coverage" was broad, but the "performance" was thin.⁷

The LEO Alternative and the Failures of the 90s

Low Earth Orbit offers a solution to the latency problem. At an altitude of 550 to 1,200 kilometers, a satellite is roughly 30 to 60 times closer to Earth than its GEO counterpart. The signal travel time drops to a few milliseconds, comparable to terrestrial fiber optic cables.⁵ This proximity allows for lower-power transmitters and smaller user terminals.

However, LEO introduces a geometric challenge. Because the satellite is so close to the Earth, it can only "see" a small patch of the surface at any given time—a limited "field of view." Moreover, LEO satellites must travel at roughly 27,000 kilometers per hour to maintain orbit, meaning they zip across the sky from horizon to horizon in about 10 minutes. To provide continuous service to a user, as one satellite sets below the horizon, another must rise to take its place. This necessitates a "constellation"—a coordinated mesh of satellites handing off data traffic like batons in a relay race.

In the 1990s, several companies attempted to build such systems, primarily for mobile voice data. The most famous was Iridium. Originally conceived to have 77 satellites (mirroring the atomic number of the element Iridium), it was scaled back to 66 active satellites.⁸ While technically successful—proving that inter-satellite crosslinks and global handovers worked—Iridium failed as a business. The handsets were brick-sized and expensive, and they could not work indoors. More importantly, terrestrial cellular networks (GSM) expanded much faster and more cheaply than Iridium's planners anticipated. Iridium filed for bankruptcy in 1999, eventually emerging as a smaller, niche player for emergency and industrial communications.⁸

An even more ambitious project was Teledesic, backed by Bill Gates and Craig McCaw. Teledesic proposed a broadband constellation of 840 satellites (later reduced to 288). It was visionary but premature. Critics labeled it a "third-world solution at a first-world price," noting that the developing world couldn't afford the service and the developed world already had cable.⁹ The cost of launching hundreds of satellites in the 90s was prohibitive. Rockets were expendable—thrown away after a single use—keeping the cost per kilogram to orbit astronomically high. Teledesic folded in 2002, a victim of the dot-com crash and immature aerospace technology.⁵

The Convergence of Enablers

The resurgence of the LEO constellation concept in the late 2010s was driven by the convergence of three critical technological advancements that altered the economic calculus:

1. Reusable Launch Vehicles: The single most transformative factor has been the reduction in launch costs, pioneered largely by SpaceX. The Falcon 9 rocket, capable of landing its first stage booster for reuse, broke the "expendable" paradigm. Launch costs dropped from tens of thousands of dollars per kilogram to mere thousands. This allowed companies to launch dozens of satellites at once—Starlink launches regularly carry 20 to 60 satellites per mission—making the deployment of a mega-constellation financially viable.⁷

2. Mass Manufacturing: In the Iridium era, satellites were hand-crafted artifacts, often taking months to build a single unit. The new space age adopted the philosophy of consumer electronics. Companies like SpaceX and the Airbus-OneWeb joint venture built assembly lines. Starlink satellites are manufactured at a rate of several per day, using standardized components and "flat-pack" designs that maximize the volume inside the rocket fairing.¹¹

3. Active Phased Array Antennas: The ground user terminal has evolved from a mechanically steering dish (which is heavy, slow, and prone to mechanical failure) to a flat panel using phased array technology. These antennas use a grid of tiny emitters that can steer the radio beam electronically by manipulating the timing (phase) of the signal. This allows the terminal to track a satellite moving at 27,000 km/h across the sky instantly and switch to the next satellite without a break in connection.⁵

III. The Current Landscape of LEO Connectivity

The theoretical possibility of LEO internet has now become a concrete reality. The market is dominated by a few key players, each with different architectures and business strategies, though one company currently holds a near-monopoly on operational capacity.

The Hegemon: SpaceX’s Starlink

As of January 2026, SpaceX’s Starlink constellation is the defining infrastructure of the sector. With over 9,400 satellites in orbit, it represents approximately 65 percent of all active satellites.¹¹ The scale of Starlink is unprecedented in human history.

The constellation operates in several orbital "shells." The primary shell is at an altitude of approximately 550 kilometers with an inclination of 53 degrees. This specific altitude is a deliberate choice for two reasons. First, it minimizes latency to the 25-35 millisecond range, making the service competitive with ground-based DSL and cable.¹² Second, it is a "self-cleaning" orbit. At 550 km, there is still enough atmospheric drag that if a satellite dies and loses propulsion, it will naturally decay and burn up in the atmosphere within 5 years, preventing the accumulation of long-term debris.¹³

Starlink has evolved rapidly through hardware iterations. The early "V1" satellites were relatively simple. The current "V2 Mini" and full "V2" satellites are significantly larger (over 1,200 kg) and more capable.¹¹ They feature "laser inter-satellite links" (Optical Intersatellite Links, or OISLs). These lasers allow satellites to pass data between themselves at the speed of light in a vacuum—which is faster than light in fiber optic glass—creating a mesh network in space. This allows Starlink to serve users over the middle of the ocean or in polar regions where there are no nearby ground stations to bounce the signal to.¹⁴

Commercially, Starlink has achieved escape velocity. With over 9 million subscribers globally as of late 2025, it is generating substantial revenue, projected at 11.8 billion US dollars for 2025.¹⁰ It has expanded beyond residential internet into lucrative markets including aviation, maritime, and defense (under the brand "Starshield").¹⁴

The Challenger: Eutelsat OneWeb

The primary operational competitor is Eutelsat OneWeb. The company has a turbulent history, having filed for bankruptcy in 2020 before being rescued by the UK government and Bharti Global, and eventually merging with the French operator Eutelsat.¹⁵

OneWeb’s architecture differs fundamentally from Starlink. It operates a completed constellation of 648 satellites at a higher altitude of 1,200 kilometers.¹³ This higher vantage point means each satellite covers a larger footprint, requiring fewer satellites for global coverage. However, the higher altitude increases the round-trip latency slightly (though still sub-100ms) and places the satellites in a regime where atmospheric drag is negligible. A dead satellite at 1,200 km will orbit for centuries, necessitating extremely high reliability and active deorbiting capabilities.¹⁶

OneWeb has focused its business model on the "B2B" (Business to Business) sector. Rather than selling dishes to individual homeowners, they partner with telecommunications companies to provide "backhaul"—connecting remote cell towers to the internet core—and serving enterprise clients in aviation and maritime sectors.¹³

The Future Giants: Kuiper and China

Amazon’s Project Kuiper is the looming giant in the industry. Although it trails in deployment, Amazon has committed to launching over 3,200 satellites. Kuiper aims to leverage the massive synergies with Amazon Web Services (AWS) and the company’s logistics empire. By integrating satellite connectivity directly into the AWS cloud, Amazon hopes to dominate the enterprise and government cloud market.¹⁸

Perhaps the most significant variable for the future orbital environment is China. Viewing LEO infrastructure as critical sovereign territory, China has established the "China Satellite Network Group" to oversee the deployment of the "Guowang" (National Network) constellation, which aims to launch 13,000 satellites. A second commercial constellation, "Thousand Sails" (Qianfan), backed by Shanghai municipal investment, began launching in 2024 and aims for over 15,000 satellites.¹⁹ These constellations are driven by geopolitical imperatives—to ensure China is not dependent on US-controlled infrastructure and to export internet services to Belt and Road Initiative nations. The entry of these Chinese mega-constellations guarantees that the population of LEO will continue to double and triple through the 2030s.²⁰

Table 1: Comparative Analysis of Major LEO Constellations (2026 Status)

Feature	Starlink (SpaceX)	Eutelsat OneWeb	Project Kuiper (Amazon)	Guowang / Thousand Sails (China)
Orbit Altitude	~550 km	1,200 km	590 - 630 km	~500 - 1,100 km
Constellation Size (Planned)	42,000	648 (Complete)	3,236	~28,000+ (Combined)
Satellites in Orbit (Est.)	~9,400+	648	< 100 (Testing)	~500+ (Ramping up)
Latency	25-40 ms	< 100 ms	Projected Low	Projected Low
Primary Market	Consumer, Maritime, Aviation, Defense	Enterprise, Telco Backhaul, Gov	Consumer, Enterprise (AWS)	Sovereign Internet, Belt & Road
Debris Mitigation	Passive decay (<5 years)	Active deorbit required	Passive/Active mix	Active deorbit planned
Inter-Satellite Links	Optical Lasers (Gen 2)	None (Gen 1)	Optical Lasers	Optical Lasers

¹¹

IV. The Transformative Benefits of LEO Constellations

The immense investment in these systems—tens of billions of dollars—is predicated on the belief that they solve problems that terrestrial infrastructure cannot. The evidence suggests that, in specific domains, they are transformative.

Bridging the Digital Divide

The "digital divide" is a persistent global inequality. As of 2020, nearly 3 billion people, primarily in the Global South and rural areas of the developed world, had never used the internet.⁴ Traditional terrestrial infrastructure—fiber optics and microwave towers—follows a logic of density. It is profitable to wire a city, but the cost per mile to run fiber to a remote village or a solitary farmhouse is prohibitive.

LEO satellites break this "last mile" cost barrier. Because the satellite beams cover the entire surface beneath them, the cost to serve a user in downtown New York is roughly the same as serving a user in the middle of the Sahara. For rural communities in the United States, Starlink has provided the first true broadband experience, replacing slow and expensive GEO satellite plans or patchy DSL. Data from 2025 indicates that Starlink users in the US experience median download speeds significantly higher than the FCC's broadband definition, enabling participation in the digital economy, remote schooling, and telemedicine.⁶

Globally, the impact is even more profound. In nations with challenging geography—archipelagos like Indonesia or mountainous regions like Nepal—LEO satellites provide a "leapfrog" technology, allowing nations to bypass the stage of laying expensive copper or fiber cables, much as mobile phones allowed them to bypass landlines.²²

Resilience and Disaster Response: A New Lifeline

The fragility of terrestrial networks is often exposed during natural disasters. Hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods frequently destroy cell towers and sever fiber optic lines, cutting off affected populations exactly when they need coordination the most.

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcano in January 2022 provided a stark case study. The eruption severed the single undersea cable connecting Tonga to the global internet, silencing the nation. It was LEO satellite terminals, flown in rapidly, that restored the first links for the government and emergency responders.²³ Unlike GEO terminals, which are difficult to align and require stable mounting, modern LEO terminals are often self-aligning and can be powered by portable generators or solar panels.²⁵

The conflict in Ukraine demonstrated the geopolitical resilience of LEO networks. When Russian forces targeted terrestrial internet infrastructure, the distribution of thousands of Starlink terminals allowed the Ukrainian government, military, and civilians to maintain connectivity. The distributed nature of the network—with thousands of satellites moving overhead—made it impossible to "jam" or destroy the network by targeting a single node.²⁶ This capability has redefined national security communications planning; redundancy now means having a LEO backup.²⁵

Economic Innovation and the IoT

Beyond human connectivity, LEO constellations are enabling the "Internet of Things" (IoT) on a planetary scale. Industries such as agriculture, environmental monitoring, and logistics require data from assets located far beyond cellular range. LEO satellites allow for low-cost, low-power sensors to track shipping containers in the mid-ocean, monitor soil moisture in remote farmlands, or track wildlife migration in real-time. This ubiquitous sensor mesh is expected to drive efficiency in supply chains and provide critical data for climate change modeling.²⁷

V. The Orbital Commons – Congestion and Debris Risks

However, the colonization of LEO is a classic "Tragedy of the Commons." The benefits of connectivity are privatized and immediate, while the environmental risks are shared, cumulative, and potentially irreversible.

The Crowded Sky and Traffic Management

The volume of space near Earth is vast, but it is not infinite. Specifically, the orbital shells that are most useful—those around 500-600 km and 1,000-1,200 km—are becoming congested highways. The introduction of thousands of new objects has fundamentally altered the statistical probability of collision.

As of 2025, SpaceX reported that its satellites performed over 50,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in a six-month period.²⁹ A later report updated this to over 144,000 maneuvers between December 2024 and May 2025.³⁰ This averages to nearly 800 maneuvers per day across the fleet. This reliance on automated collision avoidance systems is a single point of failure. It assumes that all satellites are maneuverable, that the position data is accurate, and that the algorithms will not make an error.

The traffic is not just active satellites. The ESA estimates there are over 1.2 million pieces of debris larger than 1 centimeter in orbit.³¹ These are lethal projectiles; a 1-centimeter nut traveling at orbital velocity (27,000 km/h) delivers the kinetic energy of a hand grenade.

The Kessler Syndrome

The ultimate risk is the "Kessler Syndrome," a theoretical scenario proposed by NASA scientist Donald Kessler in 1978. It describes a cascading chain reaction: a collision between two objects creates a cloud of debris. This debris spreads out into the orbital shell, increasing the density of objects and the probability of further collisions. Eventually, the collision rate becomes self-sustaining, grinding the satellite population into a belt of unusable shrapnel.³²

We are not yet in a runaway Kessler Syndrome, but the warning signs are blinking red. The 2009 collision between an active Iridium satellite and a defunct Russian Cosmos satellite generated thousands of trackable debris pieces, many of which remain in orbit today. With megaconstellations, the cross-sectional area of satellites in orbit has increased dramatically, offering more targets for the background debris population. A single collision involving a 1,200 kg Starlink or Kuiper satellite would be catastrophic for the orbital environment.²⁰

The Challenge of Dead Satellites

The "sustainability" of megaconstellations relies entirely on the premise that satellites can be removed when they fail. The FCC has implemented a "5-year rule," requiring operators to deorbit satellites within five years of the end of their mission.³⁴

However, this regulation assumes the satellite is controllable. If a satellite suffers a sudden power failure, computer lockup, or propulsion leak, it becomes a "dead bus"—a derelict object that cannot be steered. At 550 km, a dead Starlink satellite will naturally decay in 1-5 years due to atmospheric drag. But at 1,200 km (OneWeb's altitude) or higher, a dead satellite will remain for centuries.

Data from 2024-2025 indicates that while SpaceX has a high disposal success rate, the sheer volume of satellites means that even a low failure rate results in absolute numbers that are concerning. Reports suggest that dozens of satellites are deorbited passively or actively every month.³⁵ If the failure rate of a 40,000-satellite constellation is even 1%, that leaves 400 derelict, unguided missiles drifting through the busiest traffic lanes in space.

VI. The View from the Ground – Effects on Astronomy

One of the most immediate and vocal backlashes against megaconstellations has come from the astronomical community. For astronomers, the satellites are not infrastructure; they are light pollution that threatens to blind our view of the cosmos.

Optical Astronomy: The Streak Problem

When a satellite passes overhead, it reflects sunlight. In the hour or two after sunset and before sunrise, satellites at LEO altitudes are illuminated by the sun while the observer on the ground is in darkness. This geometry makes them appear as bright stars moving across the sky. In long-exposure photographs used by astronomers to capture faint galaxies, a moving satellite creates a bright streak that obliterates the data beneath it.

The facility most threatened by this is the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile. Its "Legacy Survey of Space and Time" (LSST) is a 10-year project to map the entire southern sky every few nights. It uses a massive 8.4-meter mirror and a wide-field camera to detect transient events—objects that change or move, such as supernovae, variable stars, and Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) that could pose a threat to Earth.

Because the LSST has such a wide field of view and is extremely sensitive, simulations predict that 30 to 40 percent of its images taken during twilight hours will be marred by satellite trails.³⁷ The impact goes beyond the streak itself. Bright satellites can saturate the camera's detectors, causing "ghost trails" and electronic "crosstalk" that ruins the utility of the entire image, not just the pixels where the satellite passed.³⁷ While software algorithms can attempt to "mask" the trails, the data lost is unrecoverable. This could delay the detection of hazardous asteroids or create systematic biases in cosmological studies.³⁹

Mitigation Efforts: Darkening the Skies

In response to pressure from the International Astronomical Union (IAU) and other bodies, operators have attempted to mitigate the brightness. SpaceX initially launched a "DarkSat" coated in black, but it suffered thermal issues (black absorbs heat). They then tried "VisorSat," which used sunshades to block reflections, but these were discontinued as they interfered with the new laser inter-satellite links and increased drag.⁴⁰

The current approach involves "dielectric mirror films." These are advanced materials designed to reflect sunlight speculary (like a mirror) away from the Earth, rather than scattering it diffusely towards the ground. Combined with "off-pointing" maneuvers—where the satellite tilts its solar panels to present a knife-edge profile to the sun—this has had some success. Recent measurements of Starlink V2 Mini satellites show they have achieved a brightness of roughly magnitude 7.⁴¹

The IAU has recommended that LEO satellites should be fainter than magnitude 7 to be invisible to the naked eye and to minimize the saturation of sensitive detectors.⁴³ While Starlink is approaching this, other constellations like BlueWalker 3 (a prototype for a direct-to-cell constellation) have been measured as bright as magnitude 1, rivalling the brightest stars in the sky. If thousands of such large satellites are launched, the night sky will be fundamentally altered for all humanity, not just astronomers.⁴⁵

Radio Astronomy: The Noise Overhead

Optical astronomy faces streaks of light; radio astronomy faces a wall of noise. Radio telescopes, such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) and LOFAR, listen for the incredibly faint radio emissions from the early universe, pulsars, and gas clouds. These signals are often billions of times weaker than a cell phone signal.

The issue is twofold. First is direct interference from the satellites' communication beams (downlinks). While radio astronomy has "protected bands" where no one is allowed to transmit, satellites sometimes bleed energy into adjacent bands.

The second, more recent discovery is Unintended Electromagnetic Radiation (UEMR). This is electronic noise generated by the satellite's internal components—its power inverters, onboard computers, and plasma thrusters. This noise leaks out into space across a wide range of frequencies. A 2023 study using the LOFAR telescope confirmed that Starlink satellites were emitting UEMR in the 110–188 MHz band, which is used for radio astronomy.⁴⁶ While this leakage does not violate current ITU regulations (which focus on intentional transmissions), it raises the "noise floor" of the sky. If thousands of satellites are leaking noise, it creates a "radio smog" that could blind us to the signals from the dawn of time.⁴⁷

VII. The View from Above – Atmospheric Impacts

While the orbital and astronomical impacts are visible, a potentially more insidious threat is accumulating invisibly in the stratosphere: the chemical byproduct of the "spaceflight lifecycle."

The "Design for Demise" Paradox

To solve the debris problem, regulators and operators have embraced "Design for Demise." The logic is simple: when a satellite is old, burn it up in the atmosphere so it doesn't become a collision hazard. It is a "clean" solution for orbit, but it treats the atmosphere as an infinite waste disposal unit.

Satellites are made primarily of aluminum alloys. When aluminum burns in the extreme heat of reentry (ablation), it reacts with oxygen to form aluminum oxide (Al₂O₃), also known as alumina.

The Alumina Threat and Ozone Depletion

Alumina particles are not benign. In the stratosphere, they act as a surface for heterogeneous chemical reactions. Specifically, they can activate chlorine—transforming benign chlorine compounds into reactive forms that destroy ozone. This is the same mechanism that drives the Antarctic Ozone Hole, usually facilitated by Polar Stratospheric Clouds. Alumina particles could allow this destruction to happen at mid-latitudes and potentially year-round.⁴⁸

A landmark 2024 study modeled the impact of megaconstellation reentries. It estimated that if current plans for tens of thousands of satellites are realized, the influx of aluminum into the atmosphere could rise to 360 metric tons per year, an increase of over 600% above natural levels (from meteors).⁴⁹

Another study analyzing stratospheric aerosols found that 10% of stratospheric sulfuric acid particles already contain aluminum from spacecraft reentry.⁵⁰ The projection is that this could rise to 50% in the coming decades.

The implications are severe. A recovering ozone layer—one of the great environmental success stories of the 20th century—could be imperiled by the space industry of the 21st. Furthermore, these metallic particles scatter sunlight. There is a risk they could increase the Earth's albedo (reflectivity) or create a stratospheric haze, triggering unintended geoengineering effects that alter global temperatures and circulation patterns.⁵¹

VIII. Regulatory Frameworks and Governance

The technology of New Space has vastly outpaced the regulatory frameworks designed in the Cold War era. The governance of LEO is currently a patchwork of national rules and international guidelines, full of loopholes that operators are exploiting.

The ITU and "Paper Satellites"

The International Telecommunication Union (ITU), a UN agency, manages the global radio spectrum and orbital slots. Its system is based on "first come, first served." This has led to a rush of speculative filings, known as "paper satellites." Companies or nations file for a constellation of 300,000 satellites not because they have the money to build them, but to "squat" on the spectrum rights and orbital shells, hoping to sell them later or block competitors.⁵³

This creates a massive backlog and distorts the planning process. The ITU has limited power to reject these filings if the paperwork is correct, leading to a disconnect between the "paper" reality and the physical reality in orbit.⁵⁴

Flags of Convenience

A troubling trend is the use of "flags of convenience" in space licensing. Much like shipping companies register vessels in Panama or Liberia to avoid strict US or EU labor and safety laws, satellite operators can file their constellations through nations with limited space regulatory capacity.

A prime example involves the startup E-Space, which filed for a constellation of over 300,000 satellites through the nation of Rwanda.³ While Rwanda has ambitions for a space program, it lacks the technical resources to oversee the traffic management and debris mitigation of a constellation larger than all currently active satellites combined. This regulatory arbitrage undermines the efforts of agencies like the FCC to impose strict safety standards (such as the 5-year deorbit rule). If an operator can simply license in a jurisdiction with no deorbit requirements, the global commons suffers.³

The FCC and NEPA Exemptions

In the United States, the FCC is the de facto global regulator because access to the US market is essential for any internet business. The FCC has been proactive, updating its debris rules and streamlining licensing.⁵⁶ However, a critical loophole remains.

In 1986, the FCC granted itself a "categorical exclusion" from the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), arguing that satellite launches had no significant environmental impact. This exemption stands today, meaning that license applications for 40,000 satellites do not require an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) regarding their effect on the night sky or the atmosphere.⁵⁷ Environmental groups and astronomers have legally challenged this, arguing that the "megaconstellation" era is fundamentally different from the 1986 era and requires a full environmental review.⁵⁸

IX. Future Outlook and Conclusion

The Trajectory to 2030

The trajectory is clear: the number of satellites in LEO will continue to grow exponentially. By 2030, estimates suggest the population could exceed 50,000 active satellites.⁷ We are also witnessing the integration of LEO networks into the 6G mobile standard, meaning that future smartphones will likely connect directly to satellites without a specialized dish—a technology known as "Direct-to-Device" being pursued by Starlink (with T-Mobile) and AST SpaceMobile.¹⁴

This will cement the role of LEO satellites as critical global infrastructure, as vital as the undersea cable network. However, it will also intensify the pressures on the orbital environment.

Conclusion

The colonization of Low Earth Orbit represents one of the most significant technological leaps of the 21st century. It has the power to democratize information, bringing the collective knowledge of humanity to the most remote and impoverished corners of the globe. It offers a shield of resilience against the chaos of a changing climate.

Yet, we are rapidly altering a pristine environment without fully understanding the consequences. The filling of the orbital skies, the scarring of astronomical data, and the chemical modification of the upper atmosphere are not hypothetical risks—they are processes already in motion.

We are at a crossroads. One path leads to a sustainable orbital economy, governed by robust traffic management, active debris removal, and strict environmental standards. The other path leads to the Tragedy of the Commons—a sky choked with debris, a scientific window blinded by noise, and an atmosphere degraded by pollution. The decisions made by policymakers, engineers, and consumers in the next five years will determine whether the "New Space" age opens the heavens or closes them off.

Table 2: Summary of Environmental Risks and Mitigation Strategies

Risk Domain	Specific Threat	Current Status	Proposed Mitigation
Orbital Environment	Collision / Debris	High congestion; ~144k avoidance maneuvers/6mo.30	Automated Traffic Management (STM); Active Debris Removal (ADR); 5-Year Deorbit Rules.
Optical Astronomy	Streak / Saturation	~30-40% of LSST twilight images compromised.37	Satellites < Mag 7; Dielectric Mirrors; Software Masking; Predictive Avoidance.
Radio Astronomy	RFI / UEMR	Leakage detected in protected bands (LOFAR study).46	Improved shielding of onboard electronics; Radio Quiet Zones; Frequency coordination.
Atmosphere	Alumina / Ozone	Projected 360 tons/yr Alumina influx; Ozone depletion risk.49	"Green" satellite materials (demisable without toxic byproducts); Reentry limits; Environmental Impact Studies (NEPA).
Visual Sky	Cultural Heritage	Loss of pristine night sky for humanity.	Brightness limits; Public advocacy; International "Dark Sky" treaties.

Works cited

1. Chapter I. Fueling Connectivity from Space: Spectrum Sharing and Coexistence - New America, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.newamerica.org/oti/wireless-future-project/reports/leo-satellites/chapter-i-fueling-connectivity-from-space-spectrum-sharing-and-coexistence/

2. Around 100 000 satellites are expected to be in orbit by 2030 - European Space Agency, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2025/04/Around_100_000_satellites_are_expected_to_be_in_orbit_by_2030

3. One million (paper) satellites | Outer Space Institute, accessed January 14, 2026, https://outerspaceinstitute.ca/osisite/wp-content/uploads/One-million-paper-satellites-Accepted-Version-.pdf

4. Satellite internet constellation - Wikipedia, accessed January 14, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_internet_constellation

5. Tech innovations establish profitable path for LEO satellite constellations - Telesat, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.telesat.com/blog/tech-innovations-establish-profitable-path-for-leo-satellite-constellations/

6. Starlink's U.S. Performance is on the Rise, Making it a Viable Broadband Option in Some States | Ookla®, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.ookla.com/articles/starlink-us-performance-2025

7. Large LEO satellite constellations: Will it be different this time? - McKinsey, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/large-leo-satellite-constellations-will-it-be-different-this-time

8. Timeline | Iridium Museum, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.iridiummuseum.com/timeline/

9. Teledesic - Wikipedia, accessed January 14, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teledesic

10. 5 Factors Driving SpaceX Valuation Growth, accessed January 14, 2026, https://spacexstock.com/5-factors-driving-spacex-valuation-growth/

11. Starlink - Wikipedia, accessed January 14, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink

12. Starlink vs. Fiber: Which is Better for Your Home in 2026? | SatelliteInternet.com, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.satelliteinternet.com/resources/starlink-vs-fiber/

13. Satellite Mega Constellations Market Size, Share | Report [2032] - Fortune Business Insights, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/satellite-mega-constellations-market-112989

14. STARLINK'S SPEED AND LATENCY RADICALLY IMPROVED | Starlink Network Update, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.reddit.com/r/Starlink/comments/1m1lyfw/starlinks_speed_and_latency_radically_improved/

15. Eutelsat OneWeb - Wikipedia, accessed January 14, 2026, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eutelsat_OneWeb

16. Dark-coated Starlink satellites are better but not perfect, say astronomers - Physics World, accessed January 14, 2026, https://physicsworld.com/a/dark-coated-starlink-satellites-are-better-but-not-perfect-say-astronomers/

17. OneWeb's Remarkable Comeback - IP Access International, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.ipinternational.net/onewebs-remarkable-comeback/

18. Largest satellite constellations - Future Timeline, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/23-largest-satellite-constellations.htm

19. As SpaceX Targets 50000 Starlink Satellites, China Files for 200000-Unit Mega-Constellation - SatNews, accessed January 14, 2026, https://news.satnews.com/2026/01/12/as-spacex-targets-50000-starlink-satellites-china-files-for-200000-unit-mega-constellation/

20. Space debris led to an orbital emergency in 2025. Will anything change?, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/space-debris-led-to-an-orbital-emergency-in-2025-will-anything-change

21. Chapter III. Connectivity from New Horizons: How LEO Satellites Help Bridge the Digital Divide, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.newamerica.org/oti/wireless-future-project/reports/leo-satellites/chapter-iii-connectivity-from-new-horizons-how-leo-satellites-help-bridge-the-digital-divide/

22. How LEO satellite technology can connect the unconnected - The World Economic Forum, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.weforum.org/stories/2022/02/explainer-how-low-earth-orbit-satellite-technology-can-connect-the-unconnected/

23. Space & AI Saving Lives | A Digital Twin - Tongatapu, Tonga| #UNOOSA101 - YouTube, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Bl2FcJ-iyc

24. Restoring connectivity in Tonga through collaborative disaster response - ITU, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.itu.int/hub/2022/02/restoring-connectivity-tonga-internet/

25. Cost Savings and Benefits of upgrading from GEO to LEO Satellite Systems - PEAKE, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.peake.com/blog/cost-savings-and-benefits-of-upgrading-from-geo-to-leo-satellite-systems

26. How satellites play a role in disaster relief - Viasat, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.viasat.com/perspectives/corporate/2023/how-satellites-play-a-role-in-disaster-relief/

27. A new space economy: the emerging business in low orbit satellites - UOC, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.uoc.edu/en/news/2022/237-economy-new-space

28. Why it's time for investors to get into low earth orbit satellites | EY - US, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/aerospace-defense/why-its-time-for-investors-to-get-into-low-earth-orbit-satellites

29. 25,000 Collision Avoidance Maneuvers: Lessons from Starlink - SpaceX Stock, accessed January 14, 2026, https://spacexstock.com/25000-collision-avoidance-maneuvers-lessons-from-starlink/

30. Heavy traffic ahead - Aerospace America - AIAA, accessed January 14, 2026, https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/heavy-traffic-ahead/

31. ESA Space Environment Report 2025 - European Space Agency, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/ESA_Space_Environment_Report_2025

32. Understanding the misunderstood Kessler Syndrome - Aerospace America - AIAA, accessed January 14, 2026, https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/understanding-the-misunderstood-kessler-syndrome/

33. Effect of Mega Constellations on Collision Risk in Space | ESA Proceedings Database, accessed January 14, 2026, https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc8/paper/246

34. FCC Adopts New '5-Year Rule' for Deorbiting Satellites, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.fcc.gov/document/fcc-adopts-new-5-year-rule-deorbiting-satellites-0

35. SpaceX Sees Big Drop in Number of Starlink Satellite De-Orbits in 2025 | PCMag, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.pcmag.com/news/spacex-sees-big-drop-in-number-of-starlink-satellite-de-orbits-in-2025

36. Starlink Statistics - Jonathan's Space Report, accessed January 14, 2026, https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/stats.html

37. (PDF) Impact of satellite constellations on astronomical observations with ESO telescopes in the visible and infrared domains - ResearchGate, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339724427_Impact_of_satellite_constellations_on_astronomical_observations_with_ESO_telescopes_in_the_visible_and_infrared_domains

38. Impacts of Satellite Constellations on Observational Science - National Institute of Standards and Technology, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2022/07/06/Richard%20Green%20UAZ%20presentation%20NIST%20Symposium%20June%2028%202022.pdf

39. Vera C. Rubin Observatory – Impact of Satellite Constellations, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.lsst.org/content/lsst-statement-regarding-increased-deployment-satellite-constellations

40. From Starlink To VisorSat Cutting Satellite Brightness To Preserve Our Night Skies, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.photonicsonline.com/doc/from-starlink-to-visorsat-cutting-satellite-brightness-to-preserve-our-night-skies-0001

41. [2306.06657] Starlink Generation 2 Mini Satellites: Photometric Characterization - arXiv, accessed January 14, 2026, https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.06657

42. Observation shows Starlink V2 Mini in brightness mitigation mode has apparent magnitudes of 7.06 +/- 0.10, reached the brightness reduction target recommended by astronomers. : r/spacex - Reddit, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/14bhto5/observation_shows_starlink_v2_mini_in_brightness/

43. Satellite constellations exceed the limits of acceptable brightness established by the IAU | Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society - Oxford Academic, accessed January 14, 2026, https://academic.oup.com/mnrasl/article/544/1/L15/8251664

44. consolidated recommendations for low-earth orbiting satellite constellation operators to mitigate visibility - IAU CPS, accessed January 14, 2026, https://cps.iau.org/documents/41/Consolidated_Recommendations_for_Satellite_Operators_8.1.2023.pdf

45. SatHub - IAU CPS, accessed January 14, 2026, https://cps.iau.org/sathub/

46. New Radio Astronomical Observations Confirm Unintended Electromagnetic Radiation Emanating from Large Satellite Constellations - IAU CPS, accessed January 14, 2026, https://cps.iau.org/news/new-radio-astronomical-observations-confirm-unintended-electromagnetic-radiation-emanating-from-large-satellite-constellations/

47. Starlink satellite electronics interfere with radio telescopes - Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.mpg.de/20610867/radi-satellite-constellations

48. Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega‐Constellations - Regulations.gov, accessed January 14, 2026, https://downloads.regulations.gov/FAA-2024-1395-0037/attachment_1.pdf

49. Satellite “megaconstellations” may jeopardize recovery of ozone hole - AGU Newsroom, accessed January 14, 2026, https://news.agu.org/press-release/satellite-megaconstellations-burn-deplete-ozone/

50. Metals from spacecraft reentry in stratospheric aerosol particles - PNAS, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313374120

51. 2025 News & Events: Within 15 years, plummeting satellites could release enough aluminum to alter winds, temps in the stratosphere - NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory, accessed January 14, 2026, https://csl.noaa.gov/news/2025/427_0428.html

52. Within 15 years, plummeting satellites could release enough aluminum to alter winds, temps in the stratosphere | CIRES, accessed January 14, 2026, https://cires.colorado.edu/news/within-15-years-plummeting-satellites-could-release-enough-aluminum-alter-winds-temp

53. “Paper Satellites” and the Free Use of Outer Space - Globalex, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.nyulawglobal.org/globalex/paper_satellites_free_use_outer_space1.html

54. Introduction - ITU, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-r/oth/0C/09/R0C0900000A0035MSWE.doc

55. E-Space (Rwandan submits ITU filing for 327k LEO constellation) - NASA Spaceflight Forum, accessed January 14, 2026, https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55006.0

56. FCC proposes modernization of space and earth station licensing: Key takeaways, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.dlapiper.com/en-us/insights/publications/2025/10/fcc-proposes-modernization-of-space-and-earth-station-licensing

57. Forty-Year-Old Loophole Exempts Satellite Pollution from Regulations - Supercluster, accessed January 14, 2026, https://www.supercluster.com/editorial/forty-year-old-loophole-exempts-satellite-pollution-from-regulations

58. Viasat Asks FCC to Halt SpaceX's Starlink Launches - dot.LA, accessed January 14, 2026, https://dot.la/spacex-viasat-2653129916.html

59. The 10 Hottest Satellite Companies in 2025, accessed January 14, 2026, https://interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/march-2025/the-10-hottest-satellite-companies-in-2025