Abstract The hypothesis of an Arctic "methane bomb"—a catastrophic, non-linear release of gigatons of methane from thawing permafrost capable of triggering runaway global warming—has dominated climate tipping point discourse for nearly two decades. This scenario rests on the geophysical premise that as the cryosphere degrades, vast stores of ancient organic carbon will be rapidly metabolized by methanogenic archaea in anaerobic thaw features, overwhelming atmospheric hydroxyl